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Pat Sabatini v William Gomis
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Pat Sabatini (Local)
Prediction 60.36%1.66fair odd
EV -2.22%
Edge -1.37%
Kelly -3.58%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.62
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.34%60.35%60.44%61.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.571.571.6265.36%63.58%63.69%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
William Gomis (Visit)
Prediction 39.64%2.52fair odd
EV -1.68%
Edge -0.679%
Kelly -1.14%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.48
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.56%39.65%39.56%40.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.412.402.4842.55%41.51%41.67%40.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pat Sabatini (Local): 60.36%; William Gomis (Visit): 39.64%. For William Gomis (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.52. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.48, with an expected value of -1.68%; they did not produce positive expected value.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -2.22%E -1.37%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -4.86%E -2.02%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-09 22:09 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.44%EV -2.83%E -1.76%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 39.56%EV -2.48%E -1.01%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-05-09 21:35 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -2.83%E -1.76%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -4.86%E -2.02%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-09 20:00 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -2.83%E -1.76%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -6.84%E -2.91%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-09 22:09 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.43%E -2.14%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.84%E -2.91%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 20:44 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -4.03%E -2.54%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -2.87%E -1.17%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-09 22:07 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -4.03%E -2.54%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -2.87%E -1.17%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-09 18:08 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.35%EV -4.03%E -2.54%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.65%EV -4.06%E -1.68%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-09 21:35 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.03%E -2.54%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.86%E -2.02%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-08 22:09 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.64%E -2.93%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.86%E -2.02%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-08 22:09 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.64%E -2.93%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.86%E -2.02%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-08 22:09 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.23%EV -5.24%E -3.34%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.77%EV -1.68%E -0.679%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-08 22:39 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.24%E -3.34%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -2.87%E -1.17%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-09 15:19 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.24%E -3.34%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -2.87%E -1.17%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-09 15:19 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.24%E -3.34%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.86%E -2.02%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-08 22:54 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.24%E -3.34%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.86%E -2.02%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-08 23:24 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.24%E -3.34%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.86%E -2.02%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-08 23:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.24%E -3.34%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.86%E -2.02%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-08 23:24 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.24%E -3.34%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.86%E -2.02%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-08 23:24 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.24%E -3.34%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.65%E -2.37%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-08 22:39 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.24%E -3.34%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.65%E -2.37%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-08 22:39 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.24%E -3.34%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.84%E -2.91%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-09 20:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.84%E -3.75%K -10.44%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.86%E -2.02%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-08 23:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.84%E -3.75%K -10.44%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.86%E -2.02%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-08 23:24 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.84%E -3.75%K -10.44%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.86%E -2.02%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-08 23:24 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.84%E -3.75%K -10.44%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.86%E -2.02%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-08 23:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.84%E -3.75%K -10.44%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.86%E -2.02%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-08 23:24 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.84%E -3.75%K -10.44%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.86%E -2.02%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-08 23:24 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.84%E -3.75%K -10.44%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.86%E -2.02%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-08 23:24 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.84%E -3.75%K -10.44%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.86%E -2.02%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-08 23:24 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.84%E -3.75%K -10.44%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.86%E -2.02%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-08 23:24 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.84%E -3.75%K -10.44%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.86%E -2.02%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-09 21:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.44%EV -6.45%E -4.16%K -11.72%G +0.000% | 2.47I 40.49%NM 38.56%EV -2.08%E -0.842%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-08 22:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.45%E -4.16%K -11.72%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -2.87%E -1.17%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 21:49 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.45%E -4.16%K -11.72%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -2.87%E -1.17%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 22:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -7.65%E -5.00%K -14.44%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -5.65%E -2.37%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-08 22:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 59.18% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 40.82% | -0.0% | 2026-05-09 22:09 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42% | 0.7% | 2026-05-09 22:09 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42% | 0.7% | 2026-05-09 22:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42% | 0.7% | 2026-05-09 22:09 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.53% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.47% | 1.3% | 2026-05-09 22:05 |
| Novig◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.05% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.95% | 1.4% | 2026-05-09 22:09 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 60.29% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 39.71% | 2.4% | 2026-05-09 22:09 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 59.89% | 2.41I 41.49%NM 38.27% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.84% | 8.4% | 2026-05-09 02:24 |