The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Paris Moran v Marcos Degli

2026-09-23 00:05 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Paris Moran (Local)

Prediction 22.81%4.38fair odd
EV -2.62%
Edge -0.613%
Kelly -0.801%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.50%22.81%22.94%26.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.334.024.204.2730.03%24.90%23.81%23.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Marcos Degli (Visit)

Prediction 77.19%1.30fair odd
EV -3.51%
Edge -2.81%
Kelly -14.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.35%77.19%77.06%77.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.211.241.241.2582.64%80.86%80.65%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Paris Moran (Local): 22.81%; Marcos Degli (Visit): 77.19%. For Paris Moran (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.38. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.27, with an expected value of -2.62%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯4.27I 23.42%NM 22.50%EV -2.62%E -0.613%K -0.801%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 77.50%EV -4.28%E -3.45%K -17.83%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-22 13:44
FanDuel🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.94%EV -4.21%E -1.00%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 77.06%EV -3.51%E -2.81%K -14.03%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-22 10:49
TABtouch🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -4.21%E -1.00%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.05%E -4.11%K -21.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-22 13:44
Grosvenor🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -4.21%E -1.00%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.05%E -4.11%K -21.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-22 13:44
Unibet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -4.21%E -1.00%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.05%E -4.11%K -21.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-22 13:44
BetOnline.ag🎯4.19I 23.87%NM 22.98%EV -4.44%E -1.06%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 77.02%EV -3.51%E -2.81%K -14.03%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-22 10:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -13.34%E -3.51%K -4.76%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -4.28%E -3.45%K -17.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-22 10:49
TAB🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -14.48%E -3.86%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -3.51%E -2.81%K -14.03%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-22 10:47
ReBet🎯3.33I 30.03%NM 26.65%EV -24.06%E -7.22%K -10.32%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 73.35%EV -6.60%E -5.45%K -31.41%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-22 10:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎4.55I 21.98%NM 21.96%1.28I 78.13%NM 78.04%0.1%2026-09-22 14:00
Novig◎4.35I 22.99%NM 22.60%1.27I 78.74%NM 77.40%1.7%2026-09-22 12:35
ProphetX◎3.85I 25.97%NM 23.91%1.21I 82.64%NM 76.09%8.6%2026-09-22 14:00