The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Paris Moran v Marcos Degli

Kickoff: 2026-09-23 00:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Paris Moran (Local)

Prediction 21.53%4.64fair odd
EV -0.962%
Edge -0.209%
Kelly -0.267%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.42%21.66%21.53%26.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.384.384.504.6029.59%22.85%22.22%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Marcos Degli (Visit)

Prediction 78.47%1.27fair odd
EV -3.48%
Edge -2.83%
Kelly -15.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.48%78.34%78.47%79.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.181.211.211.2384.75%82.64%82.64%81.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Paris Moran (Local): 21.53%; Marcos Degli (Visit): 78.47%. For Paris Moran (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.64. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.60, with an expected value of -0.962%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
TABtouch🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -0.962%E -0.209%K -0.267%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -5.84%E -4.86%K -29.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-22 22:45
Grosvenor🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -0.962%E -0.209%K -0.267%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -5.84%E -4.86%K -29.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-22 22:45
Unibet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -0.962%E -0.209%K -0.267%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -5.84%E -4.86%K -29.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-22 22:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -0.962%E -0.209%K -0.267%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -7.41%E -6.28%K -41.14%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-22 21:25
FanDuel🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -3.11%E -0.692%K -0.890%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -4.27%E -3.50%K -19.39%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-23 00:10
BetMGM🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -3.11%E -0.692%K -0.890%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -4.27%E -3.50%K -19.39%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-22 23:29
Pinnacle🎯4.43I 22.57%NM 21.73%EV -4.62%E -1.04%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 78.27%EV -3.48%E -2.83%K -15.14%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-23 00:05
BetOnline.ag🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV -7.42%E -1.73%K -2.25%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -3.48%E -2.83%K -15.14%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-23 00:10
TAB🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -8.50%E -2.00%K -2.61%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV -5.84%E -4.86%K -29.18%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-22 23:29
ReBet🎯3.38I 29.59%NM 26.52%EV -27.23%E -8.06%K -11.44%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 73.48%EV -4.27%E -3.50%K -19.39%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-22 17:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
ProphetX◎4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%8.3%2026-09-23 00:05