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Paddy Pimblett v Benoit Saint-Denis
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Paddy Pimblett (Local)
Prediction 45.52%2.20fair odd
EV +0.133%
Edge +0.061%
Kelly +0.111%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.41%45.81%45.27%49.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.052.012.2052.36%48.83%49.75%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Benoit Saint-Denis (Visit)
Prediction 54.48%1.84fair odd
EV +2.98%
Edge +1.57%
Kelly +3.34%
Growth +0.100%
assuming max odds 1.89
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.78%54.19%54.73%57.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.781.811.8961.73%56.06%55.10%52.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Paddy Pimblett (Local): 45.52%; Benoit Saint-Denis (Visit): 54.48%. For Benoit Saint-Denis (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.84. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.89, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.98%.
Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betsson🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 49.22%EV -11.25%E -5.77%K -11.84%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.78%EV +2.98%E +1.57%K +3.34%G +0.100% | 4.2% | 2026-07-12 03:04 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 49.22%EV -11.25%E -5.77%K -11.84%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.78%EV +2.98%E +1.57%K +3.34%G +0.100% | 4.2% | 2026-07-12 03:04 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.80%EV -8.06%E -3.99%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.20%EV +0.797%E +0.431%K +0.938%G +0.007% | 3.6% | 2026-07-12 03:04 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -11.25%E -5.77%K -11.84%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV +0.797%E +0.431%K +0.938%G +0.007% | 5.3% | 2026-07-12 03:04 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -8.97%E -4.48%K -8.97%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -0.293%E -0.160%K -0.353%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-12 03:03 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -8.97%E -4.48%K -8.97%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -0.293%E -0.160%K -0.353%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-12 03:05 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -13.07%E -6.84%K -14.36%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -0.293%E -0.160%K -0.353%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-12 03:04 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.15%EV -7.15%E -3.50%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.85%EV -0.838%E -0.460%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-07-12 03:04 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -8.97%E -4.48%K -8.97%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -0.838%E -0.460%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-12 03:04 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -8.97%E -4.48%K -8.97%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -0.838%E -0.460%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-12 03:04 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -8.97%E -4.48%K -8.97%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -0.838%E -0.460%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-12 03:04 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -8.97%E -4.48%K -8.97%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -0.838%E -0.460%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-12 03:04 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -8.97%E -4.48%K -8.97%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -0.838%E -0.460%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-12 03:04 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -8.97%E -4.48%K -8.97%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -0.838%E -0.460%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-12 03:04 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -8.97%E -4.48%K -8.97%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -0.838%E -0.460%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-12 03:04 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -8.97%E -4.48%K -8.97%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -0.838%E -0.460%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-12 03:03 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -8.97%E -4.48%K -8.97%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -0.838%E -0.460%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-12 03:04 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -8.97%E -4.48%K -8.97%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -0.838%E -0.460%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-12 03:04 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.01%EV -7.15%E -3.50%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.99%EV -1.38%E -0.764%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-12 03:04 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -8.97%E -4.48%K -8.97%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -1.93%E -1.07%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-12 03:04 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -8.97%E -4.48%K -8.97%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -1.93%E -1.07%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-12 03:04 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.09I 47.85%NM 45.99%EV -4.87%E -2.33%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 54.01%EV -3.02%E -1.69%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-07-12 03:04 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.53%EV -0.777%E -0.356%K -0.658%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.47%EV -4.65%E -2.66%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-07-12 03:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.22%EV -3.51%E -1.65%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.78%EV -4.65%E -2.66%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-12 03:04 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.42%E -2.10%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.65%E -2.66%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-12 03:04 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -5.33%E -2.56%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -4.65%E -2.66%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-12 03:03 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -2.60%E -1.21%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -5.20%E -2.99%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-12 03:04 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.42%E -2.10%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.20%E -2.99%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-12 03:04 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.69%E -3.27%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.20%E -2.99%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-12 02:52 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.42%E -2.10%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.74%E -3.32%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-12 03:04 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.88%EV +0.133%E +0.061%K +0.111%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 56.12%EV -6.29%E -3.65%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-07-12 03:04 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -2.14%E -0.996%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -7.38%E -4.34%K -10.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-12 03:04 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -4.42%E -2.10%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -7.38%E -4.34%K -10.54%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-12 03:04 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -2.14%E -0.996%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -7.92%E -4.69%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-12 03:04 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.15%EV -4.42%E -2.10%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.85%EV -9.56%E -5.76%K -14.48%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-12 03:03 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV +0.133%E +0.061%K +0.111%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -11.73%E -7.24%K -18.93%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-12 03:04 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.16I 46.30%NM 46.13% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.87% | 0.4% | 2026-07-12 03:04 |
| Novig◎ | 2.13I 46.95%NM 46.75% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 53.25% | 0.4% | 2026-07-12 03:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.16I 46.30%NM 46.00% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 54.00% | 0.6% | 2026-07-12 03:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.16I 46.30%NM 46.00% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 54.00% | 0.6% | 2026-07-12 03:05 |
| Polymarket◎ | 2.17I 46.08%NM 45.61% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.39% | 1.0% | 2026-07-12 03:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.23% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 53.77% | 1.1% | 2026-07-12 03:05 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.12I 47.17%NM 46.60% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.40% | 1.2% | 2026-07-12 03:05 |