Language:English
Oumar Sy v Modestas Bukauskas
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Oumar Sy (Local)
Prediction 66.90%1.49fair odd
EV +1.02%
Edge +0.673%
Kelly +1.99%
Growth +0.020%
assuming max odds 1.51
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.34%67.04%66.97%68.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.421.421.5175.76%70.32%70.42%66.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Modestas Bukauskas (Visit)
Prediction 33.10%3.02fair odd
EV +1.95%
Edge +0.635%
Kelly +0.940%
Growth +0.018%
assuming max odds 3.08
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.25%32.96%33.03%37.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.872.883.0840.00%34.85%34.72%32.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Oumar Sy (Local): 66.90%; Modestas Bukauskas (Visit): 33.10%. For Modestas Bukauskas (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.02. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.08, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.95%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fliff🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV +1.02%E +0.673%K +1.99%G +0.020% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -17.24%E -6.90%K -11.50%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-29 03:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 66.28%EV -2.33%E -1.60%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 33.72%EV -5.00%E -1.74%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-09-04 12:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -3.00%E -2.07%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -7.31%E -2.61%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-03 12:49 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -3.00%E -2.07%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -8.97%E -3.26%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-03 12:49 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -3.67%E -2.55%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -4.00%E -1.38%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-04 14:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -3.67%E -2.55%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -8.97%E -3.26%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-04 13:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -3.67%E -2.55%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -8.97%E -3.26%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -3.67%E -2.55%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -8.97%E -3.26%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-03 05:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -3.67%E -2.55%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -8.97%E -3.26%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -4.34%E -3.03%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -4.00%E -1.38%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-04 13:59 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -4.34%E -3.03%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -4.00%E -1.38%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-04 14:01 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -4.34%E -3.03%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -4.00%E -1.38%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-03 01:48 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.67%EV -4.34%E -3.03%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.33%EV -5.33%E -1.86%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-04 12:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.51%EV -4.34%E -3.03%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.49%EV -5.99%E -2.11%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-04 13:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -5.01%E -3.52%K -11.92%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -4.00%E -1.38%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-03 04:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -5.01%E -3.52%K -11.92%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -4.00%E -1.38%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-03 04:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -5.01%E -3.52%K -11.92%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -4.67%E -1.62%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 04:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -5.01%E -3.52%K -11.92%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -4.67%E -1.62%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 04:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -5.01%E -3.52%K -11.92%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -4.67%E -1.62%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 04:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -5.01%E -3.52%K -11.92%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -4.67%E -1.62%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 04:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -5.01%E -3.52%K -11.92%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -4.67%E -1.62%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 04:10 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -5.01%E -3.52%K -11.92%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -4.67%E -1.62%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 04:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -5.01%E -3.52%K -11.92%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -4.67%E -1.62%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 04:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -5.01%E -3.52%K -11.92%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -4.67%E -1.62%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 04:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -5.01%E -3.52%K -11.92%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -7.31%E -2.61%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-03 04:19 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.39%EV -5.67%E -4.02%K -13.84%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.61%EV +0.962%E +0.315%K +0.469%G +0.005% | 3.7% | 2026-09-03 17:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.39%EV -5.67%E -4.02%K -13.84%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.61%EV +0.962%E +0.315%K +0.469%G +0.005% | 3.7% | 2026-09-03 17:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.75%EV -6.34%E -4.53%K -15.86%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 31.25%EV +1.95%E +0.635%K +0.940%G +0.018% | 3.9% | 2026-09-04 14:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.61%EV -6.34%E -4.53%K -15.86%G +0.000% | 3.06I 32.68%NM 31.39%EV +1.29%E +0.423%K +0.628%G +0.008% | 4.1% | 2026-09-04 14:00 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -6.34%E -4.53%K -15.86%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -0.693%E -0.231%K -0.347%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-04 13:59 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -6.34%E -4.53%K -15.86%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -2.35%E -0.796%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 04:24 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -7.01%E -5.04%K -17.98%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -2.35%E -0.796%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-04 14:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -7.68%E -5.57%K -20.21%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -2.35%E -0.796%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-04 14:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 66.33%EV -11.69%E -8.86%K -36.55%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 33.67%EV -13.93%E -5.36%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-09-03 04:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.48I 67.57%NM 67.69% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.31% | -0.2% | 2026-09-04 14:04 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 66.97% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.03% | 1.6% | 2026-09-04 11:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 66.97% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.03% | 1.6% | 2026-09-04 11:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 66.97% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.03% | 1.6% | 2026-09-04 11:15 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 66.67% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.33% | 2.0% | 2026-09-04 14:30 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 67.93% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.07% | 2.2% | 2026-09-04 03:55 |
| Novig◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.67% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.33% | 3.4% | 2026-09-04 14:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.36% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.64% | 3.9% | 2026-09-04 10:20 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.02% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.14% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.84% | 8.5% | 2026-09-02 19:15 |