The School of Odds
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Oualy Tandia v J.P. Saint Louis

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 03:10 UTC

Final: Oualy Tandia 1–0 J.P. Saint Louis

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Oualy Tandia (Local)

Prediction 76.04%1.32fair odd
EV +1.14%
Edge +0.857%
Kelly +3.45%
Growth +0.039%

assuming max odds 1.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.31%76.04%75.67%81.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.271.271.3385.47%78.65%78.74%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

J.P. Saint Louis (Visit)

Prediction 23.96%4.17fair odd
EV +19.78%
Edge +3.96%
Kelly +4.94%
Growth +0.978%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.96%23.96%24.33%29.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.763.705.0031.75%26.57%27.03%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Oualy Tandia (Local): 76.04%; J.P. Saint Louis (Visit): 23.96%. For J.P. Saint Louis (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.17. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +19.78%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -11.03%E -9.43%K -64.87%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV +19.78%E +3.96%K +4.94%G +0.978%5.5%2026-10-17 02:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -5.70%E -4.60%K -23.77%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV +1.81%E +0.426%K +0.557%G +0.010%4.2%2026-10-17 03:05
FanDuel🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.67%EV -3.42%E -2.70%K -12.68%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.33%EV -5.38%E -1.36%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-17 02:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.05%EV -6.46%E -5.26%K -28.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.95%EV -11.37%E -3.07%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-17 02:55
Unibet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.31%EV +1.14%E +0.857%K +3.45%G +0.039%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.69%EV -24.54%E -7.79%K -11.41%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-17 01:45
Grosvenor🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.31%EV +1.14%E +0.857%K +3.45%G +0.039%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.69%EV -24.54%E -7.79%K -11.41%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-17 01:44
Bally Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.31%EV +1.14%E +0.857%K +3.45%G +0.039%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.69%EV -24.54%E -7.79%K -11.41%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-17 01:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.