The School of Odds

Oskar Stachura v Mateusz Balko

2026-07-18 15:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Oskar Stachura (Local)

Prediction 55.70%1.80fair odd
EV -6.98%
Edge -4.18%
Kelly -10.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.70%55.70%55.70%55.85%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.661.661.661.6760%60%60%60%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Mateusz Balko (Visit)

Prediction 44.30%2.26fair odd
EV -6.98%
Edge -3.32%
Kelly -6.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.15%44.30%44.30%44.30%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.102.102.102.1048%48%48%48%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.98%E -4.18%K -10.41%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -6.98%E -3.32%K -6.34%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-17 05:57
Unibet1.66I 60.24%NM 55.85%EV -7.53%E -4.54%K -11.41%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.15%EV -6.98%E -3.32%K -6.34%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-17 05:55
Grosvenor1.66I 60.24%NM 55.85%EV -7.53%E -4.54%K -11.41%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.15%EV -6.98%E -3.32%K -6.34%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-17 05:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.