The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Omar El Dafrawy v James Vake

Kickoff: 2026-04-11 22:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Omar El Dafrawy (Local)

Prediction 68.54%1.46fair odd
EV +0.753%
Edge +0.512%
Kelly +1.60%
Growth +0.012%

assuming max odds 1.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.43%68.54%68.54%68.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.451.471.4771.43%69.01%68.03%68.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

James Vake (Visit)

Prediction 31.46%3.18fair odd
EV -4.04%
Edge -1.33%
Kelly -1.97%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.46%31.46%31.46%36.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.692.553.0539.22%37.17%39.22%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Omar El Dafrawy (Local): 68.54%; James Vake (Visit): 31.46%. For Omar El Dafrawy (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.46. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.47, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.753%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.43%EV +0.753%E +0.512%K +1.60%G +0.012%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.57%EV -19.78%E -7.76%K -12.76%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-10 08:25
LeoVegas🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.43%EV +0.753%E +0.512%K +1.60%G +0.012%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.57%EV -19.78%E -7.76%K -12.76%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-10 08:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.43%EV +0.753%E +0.512%K +1.60%G +0.012%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.57%EV -19.78%E -7.76%K -12.76%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-10 08:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.43%EV +0.753%E +0.512%K +1.60%G +0.012%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.57%EV -19.78%E -7.76%K -12.76%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-10 08:24
Unibet (NL)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.43%EV +0.753%E +0.512%K +1.60%G +0.012%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.57%EV -19.78%E -7.76%K -12.76%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-10 08:25
Grosvenor🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.43%EV +0.753%E +0.512%K +1.60%G +0.012%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.57%EV -19.78%E -7.76%K -12.76%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-10 08:25
Bally Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.43%EV +0.753%E +0.512%K +1.60%G +0.012%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.57%EV -19.78%E -7.76%K -12.76%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-10 08:25
FanDuel🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -4.04%E -2.89%K -10.11%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV -4.04%E -1.33%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-11 16:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.04%E -2.89%K -10.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.62%E -1.87%K -2.81%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-11 12:59
Neds🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.04%E -2.89%K -10.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.62%E -1.87%K -2.81%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-11 13:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.