The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ollie Sarwa v Ieuan Mackenzie

2026-11-14 20:10 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

1 sportsbook (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ollie Sarwa (Local)

Prediction 76.92%1.30fair odd
EV -7.69%
Edge -6.41%
Kelly -38.46%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
76.92%76.92%76.92%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.201.201.2083.33%83.33%83.33%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ieuan Mackenzie (Visit)

Prediction 23.08%4.33fair odd
EV -7.69%
Edge -1.92%
Kelly -2.56%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.08%23.08%23.08%23.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.004.004.0025.00%25.00%25.00%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Ollie Sarwa (Local): 76.92%; Ieuan Mackenzie (Visit): 23.08%. For Ollie Sarwa (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.30. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.20, with an expected value of -7.69%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -7.69%E -6.41%K -38.46%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -7.69%E -1.92%K -2.56%G +0.000%8.3%2026-11-10 23:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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