The School of Odds

Oban Elliott v Michael Oliveira

2026-08-01 22:00 UTC — MMA

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Head to Head

1 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Oban Elliott (Local)

Prediction 21.33%4.69fair odd
EV -4.02%
Edge -0.894%
Kelly -1.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.33%21.33%21.33%21.33%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.504.504.504.5022%22%22%22%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Michael Oliveira (Visit)

Prediction 78.67%1.27fair odd
EV -4.02%
Edge -3.30%
Kelly -18.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.67%78.67%78.67%78.67%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.221.221.221.2282%82%82%82%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -4.02%E -0.894%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -4.02%E -3.30%K -18.28%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-24 00:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Polymarket4.17I 23.98%NM 23.06%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.94%4.0%2026-07-24 05:30

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet4.54I 22.03%NM 20.58%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.59%33.00I 3.03%NM 2.83%7.0%2026-07-24 01:15