Language:English
Oban Elliott v Michael Oliveira
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Oban Elliott (Local)
Prediction 23.75%4.21fair odd
EV +6.88%
Edge +1.53%
Kelly +1.97%
Growth +0.135%
assuming max odds 4.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.33%23.57%23.85%25.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.024.004.5027.03%24.89%25.00%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Michael Oliveira (Visit)
Prediction 76.25%1.31fair odd
EV -1.64%
Edge -1.27%
Kelly -5.65%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.29
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.40%76.43%76.15%78.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.251.241.2983.33%80.16%80.65%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Oban Elliott (Local): 23.75%; Michael Oliveira (Visit): 76.25%. For Oban Elliott (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.21. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.88%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caesars🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV +6.88%E +1.53%K +1.97%G +0.135% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -6.98%E -5.72%K -31.71%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-01 15:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.38%EV +2.13%E +0.495%K +0.645%G +0.014% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.62%EV -5.45%E -4.40%K -22.71%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-01 16:04 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.21I 23.75%NM 22.75%EV -0.010%E -0.002%K -0.003%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.25%EV -5.45%E -4.40%K -22.71%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-01 16:04 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -0.247%E -0.059%K -0.077%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -5.45%E -4.40%K -22.71%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-01 16:09 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -2.62%E -0.640%K -0.846%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.45%E -4.40%K -22.71%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-01 16:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -2.62%E -0.640%K -0.846%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.45%E -4.40%K -22.71%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-01 16:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -2.62%E -0.640%K -0.846%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.45%E -4.40%K -22.71%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-01 16:09 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -2.62%E -0.640%K -0.846%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.45%E -4.40%K -22.71%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-01 16:09 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -2.62%E -0.640%K -0.846%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.45%E -4.40%K -22.71%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-01 16:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -2.62%E -0.640%K -0.846%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.45%E -4.40%K -22.71%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-01 16:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -2.62%E -0.640%K -0.846%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.45%E -4.40%K -22.71%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-01 16:10 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -2.62%E -0.640%K -0.846%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.45%E -4.40%K -22.71%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-01 16:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -2.62%E -0.640%K -0.846%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.45%E -4.40%K -22.71%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-01 06:54 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.08I 24.51%NM 23.88%EV -3.10%E -0.759%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 76.12%EV -2.40%E -1.88%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-08-01 16:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.06I 24.63%NM 23.68%EV -3.57%E -0.880%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.32%EV -3.93%E -3.12%K -15.10%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-01 11:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV -5.00%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90%EV -3.16%E -2.49%K -11.72%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-01 12:24 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV -5.00%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90%EV -3.16%E -2.49%K -11.72%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-01 15:49 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV -5.00%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.05%EV -3.93%E -3.12%K -15.10%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-01 15:29 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV -5.00%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.05%EV -3.93%E -3.12%K -15.10%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-01 16:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV -5.00%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.05%EV -3.93%E -3.12%K -15.10%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-31 21:49 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV -5.00%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.05%EV -3.93%E -3.12%K -15.10%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-31 21:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.00%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.69%E -3.75%K -18.75%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-01 15:15 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -5.00%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.45%E -4.40%K -22.71%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-01 16:09 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -5.00%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.98%E -5.72%K -31.71%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-30 08:54 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.89%EV -6.18%E -1.57%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.11%EV -5.45%E -4.40%K -22.71%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-01 15:54 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -7.37%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -3.93%E -3.12%K -15.10%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-01 12:20 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -7.37%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -4.69%E -3.75%K -18.75%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-01 16:09 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -8.56%E -2.22%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -3.93%E -3.12%K -15.10%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-01 07:04 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.00%EV -8.50%E -7.08%K -42.50%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-01 16:09 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -10.93%E -2.92%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -1.64%E -1.27%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-27 11:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -10.93%E -2.92%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.69%E -3.75%K -18.75%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-01 06:54 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -10.93%E -2.92%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.69%E -3.75%K -18.75%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-01 06:54 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.10%EV -12.12%E -3.28%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.90%EV -5.45%E -4.40%K -22.71%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-01 15:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 4.38I 22.83%NM 22.89% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 77.11% | -0.2% | 2026-08-01 15:50 |
| Novig◎ | 4.26I 23.47%NM 23.38% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.62% | 0.4% | 2026-08-01 16:10 |
| Polymarket◎ | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19% | 0.8% | 2026-08-01 15:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92% | 0.8% | 2026-08-01 16:10 |
| Kalshi◎ | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.77% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.23% | 0.9% | 2026-08-01 16:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.50% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.50% | 1.3% | 2026-08-01 16:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.50% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.50% | 1.3% | 2026-08-01 16:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.50% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.50% | 1.3% | 2026-08-01 16:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.80% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.20% | 4.7% | 2026-08-01 16:00 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.68I 27.17%NM 25.04% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.12% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.84% | 8.5% | 2026-07-31 15:34 |
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