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Nurullo Aliev v Mike Davis

Kickoff: 2026-07-25 13:40 UTC

Final: Nurullo Aliev 1–0 Mike Davis

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nurullo Aliev (Local)

Prediction 66.92%1.49fair odd
EV -2.96%
Edge -2.04%
Kelly -6.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.06%66.91%66.97%69.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.351.421.431.4574.07%70.18%69.93%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Mike Davis (Visit)

Prediction 33.08%3.02fair odd
EV +2.54%
Edge +0.820%
Kelly +1.21%
Growth +0.031%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.96%33.09%33.03%34.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.852.853.1037.74%35.10%35.09%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nurullo Aliev (Local): 66.92%; Mike Davis (Visit): 33.08%. For Mike Davis (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.02. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.54%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
NordicBet1.39I 71.94%NM 69.04%EV -6.98%E -5.02%K -17.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.96%EV +2.54%E +0.820%K +1.21%G +0.031%4.2%2026-07-25 11:55
Betsson1.39I 71.94%NM 69.04%EV -6.98%E -5.02%K -17.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.96%EV +2.54%E +0.820%K +1.21%G +0.031%4.2%2026-07-25 11:59
Bet Right1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -6.31%E -4.51%K -15.77%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -2.42%E -0.821%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-25 13:30
Pinnacle1.45I 68.97%NM 66.97%EV -2.96%E -2.04%K -6.58%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.03%EV -2.75%E -0.936%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-25 13:30
BetOnline.ag1.44I 69.44%NM 66.97%EV -3.63%E -2.52%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.03%EV -3.41%E -1.17%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-25 13:35
DraftKings1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -4.30%E -3.01%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -4.07%E -1.40%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-25 13:30
BetMGM1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -4.30%E -3.01%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -4.07%E -1.40%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-25 13:35
Caesars1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -4.30%E -3.01%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -4.07%E -1.40%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-25 04:30
Bovada1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -4.30%E -3.01%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -4.07%E -1.40%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-25 13:34
Unibet (UK)1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -4.97%E -3.50%K -11.83%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -4.07%E -1.40%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-25 12:50
PointsBet (AU)1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -4.97%E -3.50%K -11.83%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -4.07%E -1.40%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-25 10:05
Fliff1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.31%E -4.51%K -15.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -4.07%E -1.40%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-25 13:35
FanDuel1.44I 69.44%NM 66.67%EV -3.63%E -2.52%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.33%EV -4.74%E -1.64%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-25 02:20
BetUS1.44I 69.44%NM 66.51%EV -3.63%E -2.52%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.49%EV -5.40%E -1.89%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-25 13:35
Coolbet1.45I 68.97%NM 66.28%EV -2.96%E -2.04%K -6.58%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.72%EV -5.73%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-21 13:45
SportsBet1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.30%E -3.01%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -5.73%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-25 02:19
Ladbrokes (AU)1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -4.97%E -3.50%K -11.83%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -5.73%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-25 13:35
Betr (AU)1.35I 74.07%NM 67.86%EV -9.66%E -7.15%K -27.59%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.14%EV -5.73%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-25 12:45
Virgin Bet1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -4.30%E -3.01%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -7.38%E -2.64%K -4.10%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-22 14:19
LiveScore Bet1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -4.30%E -3.01%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -7.38%E -2.64%K -4.10%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-22 14:19
TABtouch1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -4.30%E -3.01%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -7.38%E -2.64%K -4.10%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-22 14:19
BetRivers1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -4.30%E -3.01%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -7.38%E -2.64%K -4.10%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-22 14:19
Unibet1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -4.30%E -3.01%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -7.38%E -2.64%K -4.10%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-22 14:19
ATG (SE)1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -4.30%E -3.01%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -7.38%E -2.64%K -4.10%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-22 14:19
betPARX1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -4.30%E -3.01%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -7.38%E -2.64%K -4.10%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-22 14:19
Bally Bet1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -4.30%E -3.01%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -7.38%E -2.64%K -4.10%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-22 14:19
Hard Rock Bet1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -4.30%E -3.01%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -7.38%E -2.64%K -4.10%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-22 14:19
BetAnything1.44I 69.44%NM 65.80%EV -3.63%E -2.52%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.20%EV -8.37%E -3.02%K -4.73%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-25 13:35
Paddy Power1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -3.63%E -2.52%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -9.04%E -3.29%K -5.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-23 17:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -3.63%E -2.52%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -9.04%E -3.29%K -5.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-23 17:30
Betway1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -3.63%E -2.52%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -9.04%E -3.29%K -5.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-21 13:55
PlayUp1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -2.96%E -2.04%K -6.58%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -10.69%E -3.96%K -6.29%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-24 04:34
Grosvenor1.38I 72.46%NM 65.76%EV -7.65%E -5.54%K -20.12%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.24%EV -12.34%E -4.66%K -7.48%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-22 14:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly1.47I 68.03%NM 68.18%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.82%-0.2%2026-07-25 13:34
Novig1.45I 68.97%NM 68.61%3.17I 31.55%NM 31.39%0.5%2026-07-25 13:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52%0.7%2026-07-25 13:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.46I 68.49%NM 67.98%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02%0.8%2026-07-25 13:35
Kalshi1.45I 68.97%NM 68.27%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.73%1.0%2026-07-25 13:05
Polymarket1.47I 68.03%NM 67.33%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.67%1.0%2026-07-25 13:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.45I 68.97%NM 68.13%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.87%1.2%2026-07-25 13:30
Matchbook1.45I 68.97%NM 68.13%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.87%1.2%2026-07-25 13:30
ProphetX1.44I 69.44%NM 67.93%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.07%2.2%2026-07-25 13:35

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet1.41I 70.92%NM 65.39%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.69%48.00I 2.08%NM 1.92%8.5%2026-07-24 12:24