Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Norma Dumont v Ailin Perez

Kickoff: 2026-09-27 01:45 UTC

Final: Ailin Perez 1–0 Norma Dumont

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

32 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

36%

64%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Norma Dumont (Local)

Prediction 36.40%2.75fair odd

EV +36.49%

Edge +9.73%

Kelly +13.27%

Growth +4.84%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

25.00%35.48%37.13%41.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.232.652.583.7544.84%37.78%38.68%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ailin Perez (Visit)

Prediction 63.60%1.57fair odd

EV +1.77%

Edge +1.10%

Kelly +2.94%

Growth +0.052%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

58.76%64.52%62.87%75.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.251.461.481.6080.00%68.29%67.34%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Norma Dumont (Local): 36.40%; Ailin Perez (Visit): 63.60%. For Norma Dumont (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.75. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +36.49%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Caesars🎯	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV +36.49%E +9.73%K +13.27%G +4.84%	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -20.50%E -16.40%K -81.98%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-09-27 01:36
Betr (AU)🎯	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV +16.47%E +5.15%K +7.49%G +1.23%	1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -16.04%E -12.15%K -50.14%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-09-27 01:34
Hard Rock Bet🎯	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV +12.83%E +4.14%K +6.11%G +0.784%	1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -15.41%E -11.58%K -46.69%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-09-27 01:39
Betclic (FR)🎯	3.05I 32.79%NM 30.05%EV +11.01%E +3.61%K +5.37%G +0.591%	1.31I 76.34%NM 69.95%EV -16.68%E -12.73%K -53.80%G +0.000%	9.1%	2026-09-27 01:39
betPARX🎯	2.88I 34.72%NM 32.39%EV +4.82%E +1.67%K +2.56%G +0.124%	1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -12.23%E -8.86%K -32.18%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-09-27 01:40
Fliff🎯	2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV +3.73%E +1.31%K +2.02%G +0.075%	1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV -12.23%E -8.86%K -32.18%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-09-27 01:40
Betway🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV +0.090%E +0.033%K +0.051%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -10.95%E -7.82%K -27.39%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-09-27 01:39
Unibet (UK)🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV +0.090%E +0.033%K +0.051%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -10.95%E -7.82%K -27.39%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-09-27 01:40
Grosvenor🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV +0.090%E +0.033%K +0.051%G +0.000%	1.38I 72.46%NM 66.59%EV -12.23%E -8.86%K -32.18%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-09-27 01:40
LiveScore Bet🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV +0.090%E +0.033%K +0.051%G +0.000%	1.38I 72.46%NM 66.59%EV -12.23%E -8.86%K -32.18%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-09-27 01:40
Virgin Bet🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV +0.090%E +0.033%K +0.051%G +0.000%	1.38I 72.46%NM 66.59%EV -12.23%E -8.86%K -32.18%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-09-27 01:40
Bally Bet🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV +0.090%E +0.033%K +0.051%G +0.000%	1.38I 72.46%NM 66.59%EV -12.23%E -8.86%K -32.18%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-09-27 01:40
BetRivers🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.09%EV +0.090%E +0.033%K +0.051%G +0.000%	1.36I 73.53%NM 66.91%EV -13.50%E -9.93%K -37.50%G +0.000%	9.9%	2026-09-27 01:40
Bovada🎯	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -3.55%E -1.34%K -2.15%G +0.000%	1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -7.77%E -5.36%K -17.28%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-09-27 01:40
Paddy Power🎯	2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -4.64%E -1.77%K -2.87%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -4.59%E -3.06%K -9.19%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-09-27 01:40
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.59I 38.61%NM 37.14%EV -5.73%E -2.21%K -3.61%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.86%EV -2.69%E -1.76%K -5.07%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-09-27 01:29
BetUS🎯	2.58I 38.76%NM 37.23%EV -6.10%E -2.36%K -3.86%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.77%EV -2.69%E -1.76%K -5.07%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-09-27 01:28
ReBet🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -7.19%E -2.82%K -4.64%G +0.000%	1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -2.05%E -1.33%K -3.80%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-09-27 01:25
BetMGM🎯	2.54I 39.37%NM 37.13%EV -7.55%E -2.97%K -4.90%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.87%EV -4.59%E -3.06%K -9.19%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-09-27 01:40
Pinnacle🎯	2.52I 39.68%NM 38.54%EV -8.28%E -3.29%K -5.45%G +0.000%	1.58I 63.29%NM 61.46%EV +0.494%E +0.312%K +0.851%G +0.004%	3.0%	2026-09-27 01:30
Winamax (FR)🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 36.06%EV -9.01%E -3.60%K -6.01%G +0.000%	1.41I 70.92%NM 63.94%EV -10.32%E -7.32%K -25.17%G +0.000%	10.9%	2026-09-27 01:40
BetAnything🎯	2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -10.83%E -4.42%K -7.47%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -0.142%E -0.091%K -0.250%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-09-27 01:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -10.83%E -4.42%K -7.47%G +0.000%	1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -1.41%E -0.913%K -2.57%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-09-27 01:28
DraftKings🎯	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -10.83%E -4.42%K -7.47%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -2.69%E -1.76%K -5.07%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-09-27 01:40
Coolbet🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -12.65%E -5.27%K -9.03%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV +1.77%E +1.10%K +2.94%G +0.052%	4.2%	2026-09-26 22:04
888sport🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -12.65%E -5.27%K -9.03%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -0.142%E -0.091%K -0.250%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-27 01:32
ATG (SE)🎯	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.29%EV -13.38%E -5.62%K -9.69%G +0.000%	1.54I 64.94%NM 60.71%EV -2.05%E -1.33%K -3.80%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-09-27 01:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -14.47%E -6.16%K -10.72%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV +1.77%E +1.10%K +2.94%G +0.052%	5.1%	2026-09-25 15:10
Bet Right🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -14.47%E -6.16%K -10.72%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV +1.77%E +1.10%K +2.94%G +0.052%	5.1%	2026-09-27 01:29
TABtouch🎯	2.32I 43.10%NM 39.90%EV -15.56%E -6.71%K -11.79%G +0.000%	1.54I 64.94%NM 60.10%EV -2.05%E -1.33%K -3.80%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-09-27 01:40
Unibet🎯	2.28I 43.86%NM 41.24%EV -17.02%E -7.46%K -13.29%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.76%EV +1.77%E +1.10%K +2.94%G +0.052%	6.4%	2026-09-27 01:40
PMU (FR)🎯	2.23I 44.84%NM 39.73%EV -18.84%E -8.45%K -15.31%G +0.000%	1.47I 68.03%NM 60.27%EV -6.50%E -4.42%K -13.84%G +0.000%	12.9%	2026-09-27 01:40

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
BetOpenly◎	2.60I 38.46%NM 38.39%	1.62I 61.73%NM 61.61%	0.2%	2026-09-27 01:15
Matchbook◎	2.52I 39.68%NM 38.98%	1.61I 62.11%NM 61.02%	1.8%	2026-09-27 01:31
ProphetX◎	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%	1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%	3.7%	2026-09-27 01:30
Novig◎	2.15I 46.51%NM 39.44%	1.40I 71.43%NM 60.56%	17.9%	2026-09-27 01:40

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
1xBet🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%	1.64I 60.98%NM 57.10%	43.00I 2.33%NM 2.18%	6.8%	2026-09-26 16:55