The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Noah Hermosillo v Jacob Pais

Kickoff: 2026-07-26 00:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Noah Hermosillo (Local)

Prediction 80.08%1.25fair odd
EV -0.701%
Edge -0.565%
Kelly -2.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.90%80.08%80.08%80.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.221.231.2483.33%81.74%81.30%80.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jacob Pais (Visit)

Prediction 19.92%5.02fair odd
EV -2.39%
Edge -0.488%
Kelly -0.613%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.67%19.92%19.92%25.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.194.054.9027.03%23.86%24.69%20.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Noah Hermosillo (Local): 80.08%; Jacob Pais (Visit): 19.92%. For Noah Hermosillo (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.25. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.24, with an expected value of -0.701%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.90%EV -0.701%E -0.565%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.10%EV -26.30%E -7.11%K -9.74%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-24 10:05
Grosvenor🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.90%EV -0.701%E -0.565%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.10%EV -26.30%E -7.11%K -9.74%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-24 10:05
Bally Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.90%EV -0.701%E -0.565%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.10%EV -26.30%E -7.11%K -9.74%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-24 10:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -2.30%E -1.89%K -10.47%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -12.35%E -2.81%K -3.63%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-25 23:35
FanDuel🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 80.33%EV -3.90%E -3.25%K -19.52%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.67%EV -2.39%E -0.488%K -0.613%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-26 00:04
BetOnline.ag🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -3.90%E -3.25%K -19.52%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -5.38%E -1.13%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-26 00:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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