The School of Odds

Noah Hermosillo v Jacob Pais

2026-07-25 23:40 UTC — MMA

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Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Noah Hermosillo (Local)

Prediction 74.93%1.33fair odd
EV -3.35%
Edge -2.59%
Kelly -11.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.30%74.93%74.93%75.20%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.241.261.251.2981%79%80%78%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Jacob Pais (Visit)

Prediction 25.07%3.99fair odd
EV -3.46%
Edge -0.900%
Kelly -1.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.80%25.07%25.07%25.70%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.703.743.703.8527%27%27%26%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -3.35%E -2.59%K -11.54%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -4.72%E -1.24%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-24 10:04
Ladbrokes (AU)1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -4.10%E -3.20%K -14.63%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -7.23%E -1.95%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-24 12:45
FanDuel1.27I 78.74%NM 75.20%EV -4.84%E -3.81%K -17.94%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.80%EV -3.46%E -0.900%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-24 11:55
Unibet1.24I 80.65%NM 74.90%EV -7.09%E -5.72%K -29.55%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.10%EV -7.23%E -1.95%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-24 10:05
Grosvenor1.24I 80.65%NM 74.90%EV -7.09%E -5.72%K -29.55%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.10%EV -7.23%E -1.95%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-24 10:05
Bally Bet1.24I 80.65%NM 74.90%EV -7.09%E -5.72%K -29.55%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.10%EV -7.23%E -1.95%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-24 10:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.