Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Noah Hermosillo v Caden Cox

Kickoff: 2026-10-16 22:40 UTC

Final: Noah Hermosillo 1–0 Caden Cox

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

65%

35%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Noah Hermosillo (Local)

Prediction 64.99%1.54fair odd

EV -1.22%

Edge -0.804%

Kelly -2.35%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

62.19%64.99%64.99%66.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.451.491.511.5268.97%66.96%66.23%65.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Caden Cox (Visit)

Prediction 35.01%2.86fair odd

EV +0.140%

Edge +0.049%

Kelly +0.075%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

33.64%35.01%35.01%37.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.502.672.642.8640.00%37.50%37.88%34.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Noah Hermosillo (Local): 64.99%; Caden Cox (Visit): 35.01%. For Caden Cox (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.856. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.860, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.140%.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 66.36%EV -5.77%E -3.98%K -12.82%G +0.000%	2.86I 34.97%NM 33.64%EV +0.140%E +0.049%K +0.075%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-10-16 22:33
FanDuel🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 63.61%EV -1.87%E -1.24%K -3.67%G +0.000%	2.64I 37.88%NM 36.39%EV -7.56%E -2.86%K -4.61%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-10-16 20:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -1.22%E -0.804%K -2.35%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -12.46%E -4.99%K -8.31%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-10-16 21:50

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.