Language:English
Nilson Rojas v Bilal Hasan
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Nilson Rojas (Local)
Prediction 14.74%6.78fair odd
EV +3.21%
Edge +0.458%
Kelly +0.535%
Growth +0.017%
assuming max odds 7.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.69%14.82%14.70%16.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.506.336.507.0018.18%15.80%15.38%14.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Bilal Hasan (Visit)
Prediction 85.26%1.17fair odd
EV -2.81%
Edge -2.46%
Kelly -20.06%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.14
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
83.08%85.18%85.30%86.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.071.121.121.1493.46%89.58%89.69%87.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nilson Rojas (Local): 14.74%; Bilal Hasan (Visit): 85.26%. For Nilson Rojas (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.78. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.21%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caesars🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV +3.21%E +0.458%K +0.535%G +0.017% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -5.37%E -4.83%K -48.78%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-29 09:59 |
| ReBet🎯 | 6.70I 14.93%NM 14.32%EV -1.22%E -0.181%K -0.213%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.68%EV -4.51%E -4.03%K -37.61%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-28 22:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 6.70I 14.93%NM 14.10%EV -1.22%E -0.181%K -0.213%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.90%EV -6.22%E -5.65%K -62.18%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-28 13:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.62%EV -2.69%E -0.408%K -0.480%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 85.38%EV -3.66%E -3.24%K -28.16%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-08-29 10:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -4.16%E -0.641%K -0.757%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -4.51%E -4.03%K -37.61%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-29 09:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -4.16%E -0.641%K -0.757%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -4.51%E -4.03%K -37.61%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-29 10:09 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -4.16%E -0.641%K -0.757%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -4.51%E -4.03%K -37.61%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-28 10:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -4.16%E -0.641%K -0.757%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -4.51%E -4.03%K -37.61%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-29 10:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -4.16%E -0.641%K -0.757%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -4.51%E -4.03%K -37.61%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-29 07:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -4.16%E -0.641%K -0.757%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.37%E -4.83%K -48.78%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-28 13:19 |
| Unibet🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -4.16%E -0.641%K -0.757%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.37%E -4.83%K -48.78%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-28 13:19 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -4.16%E -0.641%K -0.757%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.37%E -4.83%K -48.78%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-28 13:19 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -4.16%E -0.641%K -0.757%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.37%E -4.83%K -48.78%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-28 13:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -4.16%E -0.641%K -0.757%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.37%E -4.83%K -48.78%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-28 13:20 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -4.16%E -0.641%K -0.757%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.37%E -4.83%K -48.78%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-28 13:19 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -4.16%E -0.641%K -0.757%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.37%E -4.83%K -48.78%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-28 13:19 |
| betPARX🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -4.16%E -0.641%K -0.757%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.37%E -4.83%K -48.78%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-28 13:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -4.16%E -0.641%K -0.757%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.37%E -4.83%K -48.78%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-28 13:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -4.16%E -0.641%K -0.757%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.37%E -4.83%K -48.78%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-28 17:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -4.16%E -0.641%K -0.757%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -6.22%E -5.65%K -62.18%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-29 06:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -4.16%E -0.641%K -0.757%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -6.22%E -5.65%K -62.18%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-29 01:14 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 6.49I 15.41%NM 14.94%EV -4.31%E -0.664%K -0.785%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 85.06%EV -2.81%E -2.46%K -20.06%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-08-29 10:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 6.45I 15.50%NM 14.91%EV -4.90%E -0.760%K -0.899%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 85.09%EV -3.66%E -3.24%K -28.16%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-28 21:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.01%EV -5.64%E -0.881%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.99%EV -3.66%E -3.24%K -28.16%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-29 10:01 |
| Fliff🎯 | 6.35I 15.75%NM 14.88%EV -6.38%E -1.00%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.12%EV -5.37%E -4.83%K -48.78%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-29 10:10 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.85%EV -7.85%E -1.26%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.15%EV -7.07%E -6.49%K -78.57%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-28 21:45 |
| BetUS🎯 | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.42%EV -8.59%E -1.39%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.58%EV -3.66%E -3.24%K -28.16%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-29 10:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -11.54%E -1.92%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -2.81%E -2.46%K -20.06%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-29 10:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -11.54%E -1.92%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -2.81%E -2.46%K -20.06%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-29 10:01 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -11.54%E -1.92%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -2.81%E -2.46%K -20.06%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-29 00:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -11.54%E -1.92%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -2.81%E -2.46%K -20.06%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-29 10:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -11.54%E -1.92%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -3.66%E -3.24%K -28.16%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-29 00:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -11.54%E -1.92%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -3.66%E -3.24%K -28.16%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-29 10:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -11.54%E -1.92%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.51%E -4.03%K -37.61%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-26 08:54 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.71%EV -13.01%E -2.21%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.29%EV -6.22%E -5.65%K -62.18%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-26 21:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.94%EV -14.48%E -2.50%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.06%EV -6.22%E -5.65%K -62.18%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-29 10:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.04%EV -17.43%E -3.11%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 83.96%EV -8.78%E -8.20%K -125.37%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-08-28 13:20 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -18.91%E -3.44%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -4.51%E -4.03%K -37.61%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-26 21:14 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 7.42I 13.48%NM 13.52% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 86.48% | -0.3% | 2026-08-29 10:03 |
| ProphetX◎ | 9.00I 11.11%NM 11.07% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 88.93% | 0.4% | 2026-08-29 10:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.75% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 87.25% | 0.5% | 2026-08-29 10:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.75% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 87.25% | 0.5% | 2026-08-29 10:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.75% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 87.25% | 0.5% | 2026-08-29 10:10 |
| Novig◎ | 6.45I 15.50%NM 15.24% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 84.76% | 1.7% | 2026-08-29 10:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.03% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.97% | 4.8% | 2026-08-29 10:05 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 6.90I 14.49%NM 13.49% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.64% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.86% | 7.4% | 2026-08-29 06:50 |