The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Niko Price v Leon Shahbazyan

Kickoff: 2026-10-10 22:42 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Niko Price (Local)

Prediction 44.57%2.24fair odd
EV +0.285%
Edge +0.127%
Kelly +0.228%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.60%44.53%44.62%45.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.022.162.152.2549.50%46.34%46.51%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Leon Shahbazyan (Visit)

Prediction 55.43%1.80fair odd
EV -1.89%
Edge -1.07%
Kelly -2.46%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.23%55.47%55.38%57.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.701.701.7765.36%58.94%58.82%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Niko Price (Local): 44.57%; Leon Shahbazyan (Visit): 55.43%. For Niko Price (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.24. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.285%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV +0.285%E +0.127%K +0.228%G +0.001%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -7.43%E -4.45%K -11.10%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-10 14:00
BetRivers🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -0.607%E -0.272%K -0.493%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -7.99%E -4.81%K -12.10%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 14:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -0.607%E -0.272%K -0.493%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -7.99%E -4.81%K -12.10%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 14:00
TABtouch🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -0.607%E -0.272%K -0.493%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -7.99%E -4.81%K -12.10%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 14:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -0.607%E -0.272%K -0.493%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -7.99%E -4.81%K -12.10%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 13:59
Unibet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -0.607%E -0.272%K -0.493%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -7.99%E -4.81%K -12.10%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 14:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -0.607%E -0.272%K -0.493%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -7.99%E -4.81%K -12.10%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 14:01
betPARX🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -0.607%E -0.272%K -0.493%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -7.99%E -4.81%K -12.10%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 14:01
Bally Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -0.607%E -0.272%K -0.493%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -7.99%E -4.81%K -12.10%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 14:00
NordicBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -1.94%E -0.883%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -6.88%E -4.09%K -10.12%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-10 14:00
Pinnacle🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.53%EV -2.84%E -1.30%K -2.40%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.47%EV -3.00%E -1.71%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-10 22:15
Betsson🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.38%EV -2.84%E -1.30%K -2.40%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.62%EV -7.43%E -4.45%K -11.10%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-10 14:01
FanDuel🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV -3.73%E -1.73%K -3.21%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -3.55%E -2.04%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-10 22:15
Caesars🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.17%E -1.94%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.55%E -2.04%K -4.80%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-10 18:29
Coolbet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.17%E -1.94%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.55%E -2.04%K -4.80%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-10 22:40
Bet Right🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -4.17%E -1.94%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -4.66%E -2.71%K -6.48%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-10 22:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -4.17%E -1.94%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -4.66%E -2.71%K -6.48%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-10 22:30
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.17%E -1.94%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.22%E -3.05%K -7.35%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-10 22:15
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.17%E -1.94%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.22%E -3.05%K -7.35%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-10 22:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.17%E -1.94%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.77%E -3.39%K -8.24%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 22:15
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -4.17%E -1.94%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -7.43%E -4.45%K -11.10%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-10 18:40
ReBet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.99%EV -4.62%E -2.16%K -4.05%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.01%EV -3.00%E -1.71%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-10 22:35
BetUS🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -4.62%E -2.16%K -4.05%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -3.55%E -2.04%K -4.80%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-10 19:35
BetOnline.ag🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 45.24%EV -5.06%E -2.38%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.76%EV -2.45%E -1.39%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-10 22:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.51%E -2.60%K -4.92%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.66%E -2.71%K -6.48%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 22:35
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -6.40%E -3.05%K -5.82%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -1.89%E -1.07%K -2.46%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-10 22:14
Bovada🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -6.40%E -3.05%K -5.82%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -1.89%E -1.07%K -2.46%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-10 22:40
BetAnything🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -6.40%E -3.05%K -5.82%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.22%E -3.05%K -7.35%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-10 19:25
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -6.40%E -3.05%K -5.82%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.43%E -4.45%K -11.10%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-10 22:15
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -6.40%E -3.05%K -5.82%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.43%E -4.45%K -11.10%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-10 22:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -6.40%E -3.05%K -5.82%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.43%E -4.45%K -11.10%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-10 22:15
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -8.63%E -4.21%K -8.22%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -4.11%E -2.37%K -5.63%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-10 22:25
Grosvenor🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 43.10%EV -9.97%E -4.93%K -9.77%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 56.90%EV -15.19%E -9.93%K -28.67%G +0.000%14.9%2026-10-10 14:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎2.28I 43.86%NM 43.84%1.78I 56.18%NM 56.16%0.0%2026-10-10 22:31
Novig◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.78%1.80I 55.56%NM 55.22%0.6%2026-10-10 22:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.78%1.80I 55.56%NM 55.22%0.6%2026-10-10 22:40
Matchbook◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.78%1.80I 55.56%NM 55.22%0.6%2026-10-10 22:40
Polymarket◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%0.9%2026-10-10 22:25
Kalshi◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%0.9%2026-10-10 22:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.20I 45.45%NM 45.00%1.80I 55.56%NM 55.00%1.0%2026-10-10 22:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.20I 45.45%NM 45.00%1.80I 55.56%NM 55.00%1.0%2026-10-10 22:35
ProphetX◎2.18I 45.87%NM 44.81%1.77I 56.50%NM 55.19%2.4%2026-10-10 22:40

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.54%1.69I 59.17%NM 54.62%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.85%8.3%2026-10-10 22:25