The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Nikita Krylov v Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 17:10 UTC

Final: Nikita Krylov 0–1 Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nikita Krylov (Local)

Prediction 18.70%5.35fair odd
EV +1.00%
Edge +0.186%
Kelly +0.228%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 5.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.68%18.74%18.66%20.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.254.985.005.4023.53%20.10%20.00%18.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev (Visit)

Prediction 81.30%1.23fair odd
EV -2.45%
Edge -2.04%
Kelly -12.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
79.59%81.26%81.34%82.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.091.171.171.2091.74%85.54%85.47%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nikita Krylov (Local): 18.70%; Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev (Visit): 81.30%. For Nikita Krylov (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.35. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.00%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
NordicBet🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.68%EV +1.00%E +0.186%K +0.228%G +0.002%1.16I 86.21%NM 82.32%EV -5.70%E -4.91%K -35.61%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-23 15:17
ReBet🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 18.08%EV -0.868%E -0.164%K -0.202%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.92%EV -4.88%E -4.17%K -28.73%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-24 16:25
FanDuel🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 18.08%EV -0.868%E -0.164%K -0.202%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.92%EV -4.88%E -4.17%K -28.73%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-24 05:05
Caesars🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 18.08%EV -0.868%E -0.164%K -0.202%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.92%EV -4.88%E -4.17%K -28.73%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-24 13:31
Betsson🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.83%EV -0.868%E -0.164%K -0.202%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 82.17%EV -6.51%E -5.66%K -43.40%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-23 15:17
BetOnline.ag🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -1.80%E -0.343%K -0.424%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -4.88%E -4.17%K -28.73%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-24 16:25
TAB🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -1.80%E -0.343%K -0.424%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -5.70%E -4.91%K -35.61%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 05:58
Unibet (UK)🎯5.15I 19.42%NM 18.51%EV -3.67%E -0.713%K -0.885%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.49%EV -4.88%E -4.17%K -28.73%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-24 16:30
Bovada🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.79%EV -4.61%E -0.904%K -1.12%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 81.21%EV -4.07%E -3.45%K -22.62%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-24 16:57
888sport🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -4.61%E -0.904%K -1.12%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -4.88%E -4.17%K -28.73%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 11:55
Pinnacle🎯5.03I 19.88%NM 19.26%EV -5.92%E -1.18%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 80.74%EV -2.45%E -2.04%K -12.23%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-24 16:31
Coolbet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 19.22%EV -6.48%E -1.30%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 80.78%EV -3.26%E -2.74%K -17.15%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-24 14:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -6.48%E -1.30%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.07%E -3.45%K -22.62%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-22 12:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -6.48%E -1.30%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.88%E -4.17%K -28.73%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-22 18:15
Bet Right🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -6.48%E -1.30%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.88%E -4.17%K -28.73%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-24 16:40
Paddy Power🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -6.48%E -1.30%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.32%E -6.42%K -52.31%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-24 05:05
Sky Bet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -6.48%E -1.30%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.32%E -6.42%K -52.31%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-24 05:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -6.48%E -1.30%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.32%E -6.42%K -52.31%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-24 05:05
DraftKings🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.54%EV -8.35%E -1.70%K -2.14%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 80.46%EV -3.26%E -2.74%K -17.15%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-24 16:31
Betr (AU)🎯4.85I 20.62%NM 19.44%EV -9.28%E -1.91%K -2.41%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 80.56%EV -4.88%E -4.17%K -28.73%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-24 12:00
LiveScore Bet🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -10.22%E -2.13%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -4.07%E -3.45%K -22.62%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-23 19:44
Virgin Bet🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -10.22%E -2.13%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -4.07%E -3.45%K -22.62%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-23 19:45
BetRivers🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -10.22%E -2.13%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -4.07%E -3.45%K -22.62%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-23 19:44
TABtouch🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -10.22%E -2.13%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -4.07%E -3.45%K -22.62%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-23 19:44
Unibet🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -10.22%E -2.13%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -4.07%E -3.45%K -22.62%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-23 19:45
ATG (SE)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -10.22%E -2.13%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -4.07%E -3.45%K -22.62%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-23 19:45
betPARX🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -10.22%E -2.13%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -4.07%E -3.45%K -22.62%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-23 19:44
Bally Bet🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -10.22%E -2.13%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -4.07%E -3.45%K -22.62%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-23 19:44
Hard Rock Bet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -11.15%E -2.35%K -2.97%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -4.07%E -3.45%K -22.62%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-23 19:45
BetAnything🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -13.96%E -3.03%K -3.88%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -4.88%E -4.17%K -28.73%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-24 17:00
Grosvenor🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 20.41%EV -20.51%E -4.83%K -6.31%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 79.59%EV -11.39%E -10.45%K -126.53%G +0.000%15.3%2026-10-23 19:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎5.92I 16.89%NM 16.85%1.20I 83.33%NM 83.15%0.2%2026-10-24 17:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎5.70I 17.54%NM 17.39%1.20I 83.33%NM 82.61%0.9%2026-10-24 17:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎5.70I 17.54%NM 17.39%1.20I 83.33%NM 82.61%0.9%2026-10-24 17:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎5.70I 17.54%NM 17.39%1.20I 83.33%NM 82.61%0.9%2026-10-24 17:05
Matchbook◎5.70I 17.54%NM 17.39%1.20I 83.33%NM 82.61%0.9%2026-10-24 17:05
Kalshi◎5.56I 17.99%NM 17.75%1.20I 83.33%NM 82.25%1.3%2026-10-24 08:25
Polymarket◎5.56I 17.99%NM 17.75%1.20I 83.33%NM 82.25%1.3%2026-10-24 17:05
Novig◎5.41I 18.48%NM 18.15%1.20I 83.33%NM 81.85%1.8%2026-10-24 17:05
ProphetX◎5.45I 18.35%NM 17.80%1.18I 84.75%NM 82.20%3.1%2026-10-24 17:05

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%1.15I 86.96%NM 79.81%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.84%9.0%2026-10-23 08:51