Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nik Bagley v Bruno Souza

2026-11-14 22:15 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

1 sportsbook (1 in analysis )

66%

34%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nik Bagley (Local)

Prediction 65.85%1.52fair odd

EV -7.80%

Edge -5.57%

Kelly -19.51%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

65.85%65.85%65.85%65.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.401.401.401.4071.43%71.43%71.43%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bruno Souza (Visit)

Prediction 34.15%2.93fair odd

EV -7.80%

Edge -2.89%

Kelly -4.59%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

34.15%34.15%34.15%34.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.702.702.702.7037.04%37.04%37.04%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Nik Bagley (Local): 65.85%; Bruno Souza (Visit): 34.15%. For Nik Bagley (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.52. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.40, with an expected value of -7.80%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -7.80%E -5.57%K -19.51%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -7.80%E -2.89%K -4.59%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-11-10 23:29

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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