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Nicolle Caliari v Iasmin Lucindo

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 14:05 UTC

Final: Iasmin Lucindo 1–0 Nicolle Caliari

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nicolle Caliari (Local)

Prediction 22.57%4.43fair odd
EV +2.71%
Edge +0.596%
Kelly +0.764%
Growth +0.021%

assuming max odds 4.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.42%22.50%22.52%25.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.654.104.104.5527.40%24.41%24.39%21.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Iasmin Lucindo (Visit)

Prediction 77.43%1.29fair odd
EV -3.22%
Edge -2.57%
Kelly -12.87%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.49%77.50%77.48%78.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.141.231.231.2587.72%81.40%81.30%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nicolle Caliari (Local): 22.57%; Iasmin Lucindo (Visit): 77.43%. For Nicolle Caliari (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.43. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.71%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯4.55I 21.98%NM 21.42%EV +2.71%E +0.596%K +0.764%G +0.021%1.24I 80.65%NM 78.58%EV -3.99%E -3.22%K -16.63%G +0.000%2.6%2026-10-24 12:55
DraftKings🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.85%EV -0.674%E -0.153%K -0.198%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 78.15%EV -4.77%E -3.87%K -20.72%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-24 12:55
Bovada🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 22.04%EV -1.80%E -0.414%K -0.538%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 77.96%EV -4.77%E -3.87%K -20.72%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-24 13:43
FanDuel🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.38%EV -2.93%E -0.682%K -0.888%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 77.62%EV -3.99%E -3.22%K -16.63%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-24 01:20
Coolbet🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -4.06%E -0.955%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -3.99%E -3.22%K -16.63%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-24 13:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%EV -4.06%E -0.955%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 77.55%EV -4.77%E -3.87%K -20.72%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-24 07:05
Unibet (UK)🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -4.06%E -0.955%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -5.54%E -4.54%K -25.18%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-24 13:00
NordicBet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -5.19%E -1.24%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -3.99%E -3.22%K -16.63%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-23 15:50
Caesars🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -5.19%E -1.24%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -3.99%E -3.22%K -16.63%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-24 13:17
Betr (AU)🎯4.15I 24.10%NM 22.72%EV -6.32%E -1.52%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.28%EV -5.54%E -4.54%K -25.18%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-24 12:50
BetMGM🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -7.45%E -1.82%K -2.40%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.99%E -3.22%K -16.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-24 14:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -7.45%E -1.82%K -2.40%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.99%E -3.22%K -16.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-24 14:00
Bet Right🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -7.45%E -1.82%K -2.40%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.99%E -3.22%K -16.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-24 13:10
LiveScore Bet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -7.45%E -1.82%K -2.40%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -4.77%E -3.87%K -20.72%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-24 03:40
Virgin Bet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -7.45%E -1.82%K -2.40%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -4.77%E -3.87%K -20.72%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-24 03:40
betPARX🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -7.45%E -1.82%K -2.40%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -4.77%E -3.87%K -20.72%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-24 03:39
ATG (SE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -7.45%E -1.82%K -2.40%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -4.77%E -3.87%K -20.72%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-24 03:40
BetRivers🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -7.45%E -1.82%K -2.40%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -4.77%E -3.87%K -20.72%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-24 03:39
TABtouch🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -7.45%E -1.82%K -2.40%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -4.77%E -3.87%K -20.72%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-24 03:40
Unibet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -7.45%E -1.82%K -2.40%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -4.77%E -3.87%K -20.72%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-24 03:40
Bally Bet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -7.45%E -1.82%K -2.40%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -4.77%E -3.87%K -20.72%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-24 03:40
Betsson🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -7.45%E -1.82%K -2.40%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -5.54%E -4.54%K -25.18%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-23 15:49
Hard Rock Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -9.70%E -2.43%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -3.99%E -3.22%K -16.63%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-24 02:30
Paddy Power🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -15.35%E -4.09%K -5.58%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -5.54%E -4.54%K -25.18%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-24 08:29
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -15.35%E -4.09%K -5.58%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -5.54%E -4.54%K -25.18%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-24 08:30
Sky Bet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -15.35%E -4.09%K -5.58%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -5.54%E -4.54%K -25.18%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-24 08:35
Grosvenor🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 23.55%EV -16.48%E -4.45%K -6.10%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 76.45%EV -11.73%E -10.29%K -83.82%G +0.000%14.7%2026-10-24 03:39
BetAnything🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%EV -17.60%E -4.82%K -6.64%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -3.22%E -2.57%K -12.87%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-24 11:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (8)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎4.77I 20.96%NM 21.03%1.27I 78.74%NM 78.97%-0.3%2026-10-24 14:00
Polymarket◎4.55I 21.98%NM 21.82%1.27I 78.74%NM 78.18%0.7%2026-10-23 19:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01%1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99%1.0%2026-10-24 14:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01%1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99%1.0%2026-10-24 14:00
Matchbook◎4.60I 21.74%NM 21.50%1.26I 79.37%NM 78.50%1.1%2026-10-24 14:04
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.50I 22.22%NM 21.88%1.26I 79.37%NM 78.13%1.6%2026-10-24 14:00
Novig◎4.55I 21.98%NM 21.55%1.25I 80.00%NM 78.45%2.0%2026-10-24 14:00
ProphetX◎4.25I 23.53%NM 23.01%1.27I 78.74%NM 76.99%2.3%2026-10-24 13:55

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯3.98I 25.13%NM 23.14%1.23I 81.30%NM 74.86%46.00I 2.17%NM 2.00%8.6%2026-10-24 03:05