The School of Odds
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Neil Magny v Ramiz Brahimaj

2026-08-16 02:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Neil Magny (Local)

Prediction 50.00%2.00fair odd
EV -4.50%
Edge -2.36%
Kelly -4.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.87%50.17%50.00%51.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.881.901.901.9153.19%52.74%52.63%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ramiz Brahimaj (Visit)

Prediction 50.00%2.00fair odd
EV -1.50%
Edge -0.761%
Kelly -1.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.83%49.83%50.00%50.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.881.901.911.9753.19%52.52%52.36%50.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Neil Magny (Local): 50.00%; Ramiz Brahimaj (Visit): 50.00%. For Ramiz Brahimaj (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.00. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.97, with an expected value of -1.50%; they do not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.50%E -2.36%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.50%E -2.36%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-04 13:19
888sport1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.50%E -2.36%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.50%E -2.36%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-04 15:25
PointsBet (AU)1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.50%E -2.36%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.50%E -2.36%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-04 15:24
DraftKings1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.50%E -2.36%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.50%E -2.36%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-04 21:14
Caesars1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.50%E -2.36%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.50%E -2.36%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-04 22:25
Betr (AU)1.89I 52.91%NM 49.87%EV -5.50%E -2.91%K -6.18%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.13%EV -6.00%E -3.19%K -6.82%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-04 15:24
Pinnacle1.88I 53.19%NM 51.17%EV -6.00%E -3.19%K -6.82%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.83%EV -1.50%E -0.761%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-04 18:35
PlayUp1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -6.00%E -3.19%K -6.82%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -6.00%E -3.19%K -6.82%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-04 17:09
NordicBet1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -6.00%E -3.19%K -6.82%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -6.00%E -3.19%K -6.82%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-04 20:34
Betsson1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -6.00%E -3.19%K -6.82%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -6.00%E -3.19%K -6.82%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-04 20:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig1.85I 54.05%NM 50.27%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.73%7.5%2026-08-04 21:15

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet1.87I 53.48%NM 49.73%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.45%33.00I 3.03%NM 2.82%7.5%2026-08-04 18:38