Language:English
Nathaniel Wood v Losene Keita
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Nathaniel Wood (Local)
Prediction 30.15%3.32fair odd
EV +2.80%
Edge +0.821%
Kelly +1.16%
Growth +0.033%
assuming max odds 3.41
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.36%31.09%30.65%39.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.382.872.903.4142.02%34.87%34.48%29.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Losene Keita (Visit)
Prediction 69.85%1.43fair odd
EV +8.97%
Edge +5.75%
Kelly +16.02%
Growth +1.44%
assuming max odds 1.56
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.61%68.91%69.35%71.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.411.381.5676.92%70.74%72.46%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nathaniel Wood (Local): 30.15%; Losene Keita (Visit): 69.85%. For Losene Keita (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.43. 16 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.56, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.97%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -27.65%E -11.52%K -19.75%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV +8.97%E +5.75%K +16.02%G +1.44% | 5.8% | 2026-03-21 19:14 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -24.63%E -9.85%K -16.42%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV +6.88%E +4.49%K +12.97%G +0.892% | 5.4% | 2026-03-21 19:14 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -24.63%E -9.85%K -16.42%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV +6.88%E +4.49%K +12.97%G +0.892% | 5.4% | 2026-03-21 19:14 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -24.63%E -9.85%K -16.42%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV +4.78%E +3.19%K +9.56%G +0.457% | 6.7% | 2026-03-21 19:14 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.69%EV -25.24%E -10.18%K -17.05%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.31%EV +4.78%E +3.19%K +9.56%G +0.457% | 7.0% | 2026-03-21 19:14 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.69%EV -25.24%E -10.18%K -17.05%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.31%EV +4.78%E +3.19%K +9.56%G +0.457% | 7.0% | 2026-03-21 19:14 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.69%EV -25.24%E -10.18%K -17.05%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.31%EV +4.78%E +3.19%K +9.56%G +0.457% | 7.0% | 2026-03-21 19:14 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.69%EV -25.24%E -10.18%K -17.05%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.31%EV +4.78%E +3.19%K +9.56%G +0.457% | 7.0% | 2026-03-21 19:14 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.17%EV -26.74%E -11.01%K -18.70%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.83%EV +4.78%E +3.19%K +9.56%G +0.457% | 7.8% | 2026-03-21 19:14 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -27.65%E -11.52%K -19.75%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 61.70%EV +4.08%E +2.74%K +8.33%G +0.340% | 8.8% | 2026-03-21 19:14 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -27.65%E -11.52%K -19.75%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 61.70%EV +4.08%E +2.74%K +8.33%G +0.340% | 8.8% | 2026-03-21 19:14 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -27.65%E -11.52%K -19.75%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 61.70%EV +4.08%E +2.74%K +8.33%G +0.340% | 8.8% | 2026-03-21 19:14 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -27.65%E -11.52%K -19.75%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 61.70%EV +4.08%E +2.74%K +8.33%G +0.340% | 8.8% | 2026-03-21 19:14 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.18%EV -28.25%E -11.87%K -20.47%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 61.82%EV +2.68%E +1.83%K +5.71%G +0.153% | 10.0% | 2026-03-21 19:14 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -17.10%E -6.22%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV +0.589%E +0.409%K +1.34%G +0.008% | 5.8% | 2026-03-16 17:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.72I 36.76%NM 34.62%EV -18.00%E -6.62%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.38%EV +0.589%E +0.409%K +1.34%G +0.008% | 6.2% | 2026-03-21 19:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.49%EV -15.59%E -5.57%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.51%EV -1.51%E -1.07%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-21 19:14 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -12.58%E -4.34%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -2.20%E -1.57%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-19 08:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -17.10%E -6.22%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -2.20%E -1.57%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-21 19:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -9.56%E -3.19%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -3.60%E -2.61%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-21 10:20 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -5.04%E -1.60%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -4.30%E -3.14%K -11.62%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-21 14:04 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -6.55%E -2.11%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -4.30%E -3.14%K -11.62%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 10:20 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -12.58%E -4.34%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.92%EV -4.30%E -3.14%K -11.62%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-21 19:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.41I 29.33%NM 28.51%EV +2.80%E +0.821%K +1.16%G +0.033% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.49%EV -5.00%E -3.68%K -13.89%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-03-21 16:09 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.87%EV +0.990%E +0.296%K +0.421%G +0.004% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.13%EV -5.00%E -3.68%K -13.89%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-21 19:10 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.26I 30.67%NM 29.44%EV -1.72%E -0.528%K -0.762%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.56%EV -5.00%E -3.68%K -13.89%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-21 19:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.17I 31.55%NM 30.02%EV -4.44%E -1.40%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.98%EV -5.00%E -3.68%K -13.89%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-21 12:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -8.05%E -2.64%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -5.00%E -3.68%K -13.89%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-21 17:54 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -9.56%E -3.19%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.00%E -3.68%K -13.89%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-21 19:14 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.41I 29.33%NM 28.36%EV +2.80%E +0.821%K +1.16%G +0.033% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 71.64%EV -5.70%E -4.22%K -16.28%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-21 19:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.72%EV +0.990%E +0.296%K +0.421%G +0.004% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 71.28%EV -5.70%E -4.22%K -16.28%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-21 17:19 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -3.53%E -1.10%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.70%E -4.22%K -16.28%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-20 23:59 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -3.53%E -1.10%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.70%E -4.22%K -16.28%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-20 23:59 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -5.04%E -1.60%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -5.70%E -4.22%K -16.28%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-21 18:49 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -0.517%E -0.157%K -0.225%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -7.09%E -5.33%K -21.50%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-21 18:54 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -3.53%E -1.10%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -7.09%E -5.33%K -21.50%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-21 19:12 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -9.56%E -3.19%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.09%E -5.33%K -21.50%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-21 17:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -2.02%E -0.623%K -0.900%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -9.19%E -7.07%K -30.63%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-21 19:12 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -2.02%E -0.623%K -0.900%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -9.19%E -7.07%K -30.63%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-21 19:14 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 3.62I 27.62%NM 27.60% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 72.40% | 0.1% | 2026-03-21 18:55 |
| ProphetX◎ | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.21% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.79% | 0.4% | 2026-03-21 19:13 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 72.01% | 0.6% | 2026-03-21 19:10 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.63I 38.02%NM 37.68% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.32% | 0.9% | 2026-03-21 19:15 |
| Novig◎ | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.64% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.36% | 6.5% | 2026-03-21 19:14 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.94I 51.55%NM 41.39% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 58.61% | 24.5% | 2026-03-21 19:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.51I 66.23%NM 51.13% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 48.87% | 29.5% | 2026-03-21 19:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.50I 66.67%NM 46.43% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 53.57% | 43.6% | 2026-03-21 19:15 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.42% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.72% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.86% | 7.8% | 2026-03-21 17:04 |