The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Nate Diaz v Mike Perry

Kickoff: 2026-05-17 02:50 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nate Diaz (Local)

Prediction 39.36%2.54fair odd
EV -1.61%
Edge -0.644%
Kelly -1.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.50%39.36%39.36%40.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.402.402.5043.48%41.68%41.67%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Mike Perry (Visit)

Prediction 60.64%1.65fair odd
EV -3.58%
Edge -2.25%
Kelly -6.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.59

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.43%60.64%60.64%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.551.561.5966.67%64.35%64.10%62.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nate Diaz (Local): 39.36%; Mike Perry (Visit): 60.64%. For Nate Diaz (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.54. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.50, with an expected value of -1.61%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -1.61%E -0.644%K -1.07%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -9.03%E -6.02%K -18.07%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-17 01:40
BetOnline.ag🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -3.58%E -1.46%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -3.58%E -2.25%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-17 02:45
SportsBet🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 38.23%EV -3.97%E -1.63%K -2.76%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 61.77%EV -8.43%E -5.58%K -16.53%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 23:55
LeoVegas🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -5.54%E -2.31%K -3.96%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.40%E -3.46%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-17 02:40
Grosvenor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -5.54%E -2.31%K -3.96%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.40%E -3.46%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-17 02:40
Bally Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -5.54%E -2.31%K -3.96%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.40%E -3.46%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-17 02:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -5.54%E -2.31%K -3.96%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.40%E -3.46%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-17 02:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -5.54%E -2.31%K -3.96%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.40%E -3.46%K -9.64%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-17 02:40
Neds🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -9.48%E -4.12%K -7.29%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -4.79%E -3.05%K -8.40%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-17 00:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -9.48%E -4.12%K -7.29%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -4.79%E -3.05%K -8.40%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-17 00:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48%1.2%2026-05-17 02:45
Novig◎2.10I 47.62%NM 44.15%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.85%7.9%2026-05-17 02:45