The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Muslim Salikhov v Jake Matthews

Kickoff: 2026-05-30 10:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Muslim Salikhov (Local)

Prediction 51.81%1.93fair odd
EV +45.06%
Edge +16.09%
Kelly +25.03%
Growth +11.28%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.37%49.09%51.82%52.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.722.041.852.8058.14%48.92%54.05%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jake Matthews (Visit)

Prediction 48.19%2.07fair odd
EV -2.65%
Edge -1.31%
Kelly -2.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.40%50.91%48.18%67.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.341.831.962.0274.63%54.73%50.89%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Muslim Salikhov (Local): 51.81%; Jake Matthews (Visit): 48.19%. For Muslim Salikhov (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.93. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +45.06%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Betclic (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.37%EV +45.06%E +16.09%K +25.03%G +11.28%1.34I 74.63%NM 67.63%EV -35.42%E -26.43%K -104.18%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-16 22:04
Neds🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV +26.92%E +10.99%K +18.57%G +5.00%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -24.34%E -15.50%K -42.69%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-17 02:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV +26.92%E +10.99%K +18.57%G +5.00%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -24.34%E -15.50%K -42.69%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-17 02:45
Pinnacle🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.55%EV -3.12%E -1.67%K -3.59%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 48.45%EV -4.09%E -2.06%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-19 05:30
Coolbet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.82%EV -4.16%E -2.25%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 48.18%EV -4.09%E -2.06%K -4.14%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-19 05:09
DraftKings🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -4.16%E -2.25%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -4.58%E -2.31%K -4.67%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-20 07:29
BetOnline.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.20%E -2.84%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.61%E -1.81%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-18 11:45
Bovada🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -5.71%E -3.14%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -2.65%E -1.31%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-18 12:11
Unibet (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.75%E -3.75%K -8.44%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.02%E -3.09%K -6.34%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-18 11:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 51.96%EV -10.89%E -6.33%K -15.13%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 48.04%EV -10.36%E -5.57%K -12.05%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-18 11:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎1.00I 100.00%NM 66.22%1.96I 51.02%NM 33.78%51.0%2026-05-17 16:05