The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Movsar Ibragimov v Youssouf Binate

Kickoff: 2026-05-23 16:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Movsar Ibragimov (Local)

Prediction 64.96%1.54fair odd
EV -1.26%
Edge -0.828%
Kelly -2.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.03%64.96%64.96%66.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.481.511.5269.44%67.37%66.23%65.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Youssouf Binate (Visit)

Prediction 35.04%2.85fair odd
EV -0.492%
Edge -0.173%
Kelly -0.267%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.84

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.80%35.04%35.04%38.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.382.612.672.8442.02%38.36%37.45%35.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Movsar Ibragimov (Local): 64.96%; Youssouf Binate (Visit): 35.04%. For Youssouf Binate (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.85. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.84, with an expected value of -0.492%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.72%EV -1.26%E -0.828%K -2.42%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 36.28%EV -6.45%E -2.41%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-22 21:28
Unibet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.03%EV -1.26%E -0.828%K -2.42%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.97%EV -16.61%E -6.98%K -12.04%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-22 06:50
LeoVegas🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.18%EV -1.91%E -1.26%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.82%EV -16.61%E -6.98%K -12.04%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-22 06:50
Grosvenor🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.18%EV -1.91%E -1.26%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.82%EV -16.61%E -6.98%K -12.04%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-22 06:50
FanDuel🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 66.20%EV -5.81%E -4.00%K -12.90%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.80%EV -0.492%E -0.173%K -0.267%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-23 07:39
Neds🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -6.45%E -4.48%K -14.67%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -1.89%E -0.676%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-23 01:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -6.45%E -4.48%K -14.67%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -1.89%E -0.676%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-23 01:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.