Language:English
Movsar Evloev v Lerone Murphy
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Movsar Evloev (Local)
Prediction 68.69%1.46fair odd
EV -1.09%
Edge -0.757%
Kelly -2.48%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.44
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.63%68.57%68.72%70.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.341.381.381.4474.63%72.36%72.46%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Lerone Murphy (Visit)
Prediction 31.31%3.19fair odd
EV +3.33%
Edge +1.01%
Kelly +1.45%
Growth +0.048%
assuming max odds 3.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.03%31.43%31.28%34.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.043.103.3036.36%32.85%32.26%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Movsar Evloev (Local): 68.69%; Lerone Murphy (Visit): 31.31%. For Lerone Murphy (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.19. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.33%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betsson🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -7.27%E -5.39%K -20.78%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV +3.33%E +1.01%K +1.45%G +0.048% | 4.4% | 2026-03-21 17:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -7.27%E -5.39%K -20.78%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV +3.33%E +1.01%K +1.45%G +0.048% | 4.4% | 2026-03-21 17:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.23%EV -3.84%E -2.74%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.77%EV -1.37%E -0.433%K -0.635%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-03-21 22:39 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -5.21%E -3.78%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -1.37%E -0.433%K -0.635%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-21 21:14 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.87%EV -3.15%E -2.23%K -7.68%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 31.13%EV -2.30%E -0.739%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-03-21 22:14 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.58%EV -2.46%E -1.74%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.42%EV -2.93%E -0.945%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-03-21 20:39 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -3.84%E -2.74%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -2.93%E -0.945%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-21 21:04 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -5.21%E -3.78%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -2.93%E -0.945%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -5.21%E -3.78%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -2.93%E -0.945%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -5.90%E -4.31%K -15.94%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -2.93%E -0.945%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 11:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -5.90%E -4.31%K -15.94%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -2.93%E -0.945%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 11:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -5.90%E -4.31%K -15.94%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -2.93%E -0.945%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 11:44 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.59%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.93%E -0.945%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.59%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.93%E -0.945%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-21 11:44 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.59%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.93%E -0.945%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-21 11:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.59%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.93%E -0.945%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-21 11:44 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.59%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.93%E -0.945%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-21 11:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.59%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.93%E -0.945%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-21 11:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.59%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.93%E -0.945%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-21 11:55 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.59%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.93%E -0.945%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-21 11:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.59%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.93%E -0.945%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-21 11:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.59%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.93%E -0.945%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-21 11:55 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.59%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.93%E -0.945%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-21 11:55 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.61%EV -3.84%E -2.74%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 3.06I 32.68%NM 31.39%EV -4.18%E -1.37%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-21 21:34 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -3.84%E -2.74%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV -4.50%E -1.47%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-21 20:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.21%E -3.78%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -4.50%E -1.47%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 21:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.84%E -2.74%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -6.06%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 21:04 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -5.90%E -4.31%K -15.94%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -6.06%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-21 14:34 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.12%EV -7.96%E -5.94%K -23.41%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.88%EV -6.06%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-21 21:49 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.73%EV -2.46%E -1.74%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.27%EV -6.69%E -2.24%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-20 23:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.96%EV -3.84%E -2.74%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 32.04%EV -7.00%E -2.36%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-18 08:00 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -3.15%E -2.23%K -7.68%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -7.63%E -2.59%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 22:29 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -3.84%E -2.74%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -7.63%E -2.59%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 19:20 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -3.84%E -2.74%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -7.63%E -2.59%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 22:19 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -6.59%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -9.19%E -3.17%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-21 21:04 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -3.84%E -2.74%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -9.82%E -3.41%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-18 07:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -3.84%E -2.74%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -9.82%E -3.41%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-21 18:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.14%EV -5.21%E -3.78%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 32.86%EV -11.70%E -4.15%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-21 22:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -1.09%E -0.757%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -13.89%E -5.05%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-20 16:29 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -1.09%E -0.757%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -13.89%E -5.05%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-20 18:34 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.81% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 29.19% | 0.2% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56% | 0.7% | 2026-03-21 22:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56% | 0.7% | 2026-03-21 22:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56% | 0.7% | 2026-03-21 22:40 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56% | 0.7% | 2026-03-21 22:39 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.31% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.69% | 0.9% | 2026-03-21 22:39 |
| Novig◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 68.78% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.22% | 1.7% | 2026-03-21 22:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.04% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.96% | 4.2% | 2026-03-21 22:39 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.17% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 29.37% | 38.00I 2.63%NM 2.46% | 7.1% | 2026-03-21 22:19 |