Language:English
Morgan Charriere v Felipe Lima
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Morgan Charriere (Local)
Prediction 35.91%2.78fair odd
EV +0.906%
Edge +0.322%
Kelly +0.501%
Growth +0.005%
assuming max odds 2.81
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.35%36.04%35.97%38.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.642.672.8141.67%37.81%37.45%35.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Felipe Lima (Visit)
Prediction 64.09%1.56fair odd
EV -1.30%
Edge -0.845%
Kelly -2.41%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.54
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.38%63.96%64.03%65.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.351.481.481.5474.07%67.43%67.57%64.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Morgan Charriere (Local): 35.91%; Felipe Lima (Visit): 64.09%. For Morgan Charriere (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.78. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.81, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.906%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.81I 35.59%NM 34.35%EV +0.906%E +0.322%K +0.501%G +0.005% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.65%EV -5.79%E -3.94%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-03 21:28 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.78I 35.97%NM 34.59%EV -0.171%E -0.062%K -0.096%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.41%EV -5.79%E -3.94%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-03 21:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -1.25%E -0.454%K -0.714%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -7.71%E -5.35%K -17.52%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-03 21:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.73I 36.63%NM 35.31%EV -1.97%E -0.720%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.69%EV -4.51%E -3.02%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-03 21:33 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.73I 36.63%NM 34.53%EV -1.97%E -0.720%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.47%EV -7.71%E -5.35%K -17.52%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-03 21:14 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -3.04%E -1.13%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -4.51%E -3.02%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-03 21:03 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -3.04%E -1.13%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -4.51%E -3.02%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-04 13:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -3.04%E -1.13%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -5.15%E -3.48%K -10.72%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-03 22:14 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -3.04%E -1.13%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -5.79%E -3.94%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 22:14 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -3.04%E -1.13%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -5.79%E -3.94%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 22:14 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -3.04%E -1.13%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -5.79%E -3.94%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 22:14 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -3.04%E -1.13%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -5.79%E -3.94%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 22:14 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -3.04%E -1.13%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -5.79%E -3.94%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 22:14 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -3.04%E -1.13%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -5.79%E -3.94%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 22:15 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -3.04%E -1.13%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -5.79%E -3.94%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 22:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -3.04%E -1.13%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -5.79%E -3.94%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 22:14 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -3.04%E -1.13%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -5.79%E -3.94%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-04 02:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -3.04%E -1.13%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -5.79%E -3.94%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 22:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -3.04%E -1.13%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -5.79%E -3.94%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 22:14 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.67I 37.45%NM 35.97%EV -4.12%E -1.54%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.03%EV -3.86%E -2.58%K -7.73%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-03 16:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.67I 37.45%NM 35.97%EV -4.12%E -1.54%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.03%EV -3.86%E -2.58%K -7.73%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-03 16:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV -4.84%E -1.83%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -1.94%E -1.27%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -4.84%E -1.83%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -3.86%E -2.58%K -7.73%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-29 13:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -4.84%E -1.83%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -5.79%E -3.94%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-03 22:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.05%EV -4.84%E -1.83%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -8.35%E -5.84%K -19.42%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-03 21:14 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.39%EV -5.20%E -1.97%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.61%EV -3.22%E -2.13%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-03 21:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.64I 37.88%NM 35.61%EV -5.20%E -1.97%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.39%EV -6.43%E -4.40%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-04 08:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -5.92%E -2.26%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -3.86%E -2.58%K -7.73%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-25 16:29 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.64%E -2.55%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.86%E -2.58%K -7.73%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-29 13:10 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV -6.64%E -2.55%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%EV -4.51%E -3.02%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-29 09:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.57I 38.91%NM 37.01%EV -7.71%E -3.00%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.99%EV -3.22%E -2.13%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-02 11:45 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -8.43%E -3.31%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -1.30%E -0.845%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-01 20:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.54I 39.37%NM 37.44%EV -8.79%E -3.46%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.56%EV -2.58%E -1.70%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-03 19:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -10.23%E -4.09%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -1.94%E -1.27%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-01 13:35 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -10.23%E -4.09%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -1.94%E -1.27%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-01 13:35 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -10.23%E -4.09%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -1.94%E -1.27%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-01 22:40 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -10.23%E -4.09%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.66%EV -4.51%E -3.02%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-03 21:14 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 35.53%EV -12.02%E -4.91%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 64.47%EV -13.48%E -9.98%K -38.51%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-09-03 22:14 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.62%EV -13.82%E -5.76%K -9.87%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.38%EV -3.22%E -2.13%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-01 16:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.94% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 64.06% | 0.1% | 2026-09-04 07:49 |
| Novig◎ | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.80% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 64.20% | 0.5% | 2026-09-04 09:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.15% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 63.85% | 1.7% | 2026-09-04 13:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.15% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 63.85% | 1.7% | 2026-09-04 13:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.15% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 63.85% | 1.7% | 2026-09-04 13:35 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.32% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 63.68% | 2.0% | 2026-09-04 00:20 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.17% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.83% | 2.4% | 2026-09-04 12:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.68I 37.31%NM 36.34% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.66% | 2.7% | 2026-09-04 13:50 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.71I 36.90%NM 34.52% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.20% | 41.00I 2.44%NM 2.28% | 6.9% | 2026-09-04 08:25 |