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Montel Jackson v Ricky Simon

Kickoff: 2026-09-26 22:00 UTC

Final: Ricky Simon 0–1 Montel Jackson

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Montel Jackson (Local)

Prediction 66.61%1.50fair odd
EV -3.42%
Edge -2.36%
Kelly -7.59%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.27%66.56%66.63%68.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.431.431.4575.19%69.93%69.93%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ricky Simon (Visit)

Prediction 33.39%2.99fair odd
EV +0.169%
Edge +0.056%
Kelly +0.085%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.66%33.44%33.37%34.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.842.803.0040.00%35.27%35.71%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Montel Jackson (Local): 66.61%; Ricky Simon (Visit): 33.39%. For Ricky Simon (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.99. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.169%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Caesars🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -5.41%E -3.81%K -12.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV +0.169%E +0.056%K +0.085%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-26 15:47
Bet Right🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -7.41%E -5.33%K -19.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV +0.169%E +0.056%K +0.085%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-26 21:50
Pinnacle🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 67.05%EV -3.42%E -2.36%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.95%EV -1.50%E -0.509%K -0.769%G +0.000%2.9%2026-09-26 10:55
BetMGM🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -4.75%E -3.32%K -11.04%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -1.50%E -0.509%K -0.769%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-26 19:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.20%EV -4.75%E -3.32%K -11.04%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.80%EV -2.17%E -0.740%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-26 21:54
Coolbet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -4.08%E -2.83%K -9.28%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -3.17%E -1.09%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-26 21:55
BetUS🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -4.75%E -3.32%K -11.04%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -3.17%E -1.09%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-26 21:55
DraftKings🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -4.75%E -3.32%K -11.04%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -3.17%E -1.09%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-26 10:55
Bovada🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -4.75%E -3.32%K -11.04%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -3.17%E -1.09%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-26 21:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -5.41%E -3.81%K -12.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -3.17%E -1.09%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-26 12:24
ReBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.74%EV -4.08%E -2.83%K -9.28%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 33.26%EV -3.50%E -1.21%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-26 12:19
NordicBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 66.28%EV -3.42%E -2.36%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.72%EV -4.84%E -1.70%K -2.62%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-26 15:14
Unibet (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.08%E -2.83%K -9.28%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -4.84%E -1.70%K -2.62%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-26 12:19
LiveScore Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.08%E -2.83%K -9.28%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -6.51%E -2.32%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-26 08:15
Virgin Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.08%E -2.83%K -9.28%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -6.51%E -2.32%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-26 08:15
Unibet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.08%E -2.83%K -9.28%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -6.51%E -2.32%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-26 08:15
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.08%E -2.83%K -9.28%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -6.51%E -2.32%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-26 08:15
Betsson🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -4.75%E -3.32%K -11.04%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -6.51%E -2.32%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-26 15:14
BetRivers🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -4.75%E -3.32%K -11.04%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -6.51%E -2.32%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-26 08:15
TABtouch🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -4.75%E -3.32%K -11.04%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -6.51%E -2.32%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-26 08:14
Bally Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -4.75%E -3.32%K -11.04%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -6.51%E -2.32%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-26 08:15
betPARX🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -4.75%E -3.32%K -11.04%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -6.51%E -2.32%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-26 08:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -4.75%E -3.32%K -11.04%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -6.51%E -2.32%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-26 08:15
BetAnything🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -4.75%E -3.32%K -11.04%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -6.51%E -2.32%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-26 21:50
888sport🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -3.42%E -2.36%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -8.18%E -2.97%K -4.67%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-25 08:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -3.42%E -2.36%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -8.18%E -2.97%K -4.67%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-26 20:30
Betway🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.08%E -2.83%K -9.28%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -8.18%E -2.97%K -4.67%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-22 08:39
Betr (AU)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -4.75%E -3.32%K -11.04%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -8.18%E -2.97%K -4.67%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-26 08:20
Grosvenor🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 65.27%EV -11.41%E -8.58%K -34.57%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.73%EV -16.53%E -6.61%K -11.02%G +0.000%15.2%2026-09-26 08:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.47I 68.03%NM 67.90%3.11I 32.15%NM 32.10%0.2%2026-09-26 21:55
Novig◎1.46I 68.49%NM 67.84%3.08I 32.47%NM 32.16%1.0%2026-09-26 21:55
ProphetX◎1.48I 67.57%NM 66.82%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.18%1.1%2026-09-26 21:55
Matchbook◎1.47I 68.03%NM 67.11%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.89%1.4%2026-09-26 21:55

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.82%2.81I 35.59%NM 32.76%38.00I 2.63%NM 2.42%8.6%2026-09-26 21:29