Language:English
Montel Jackson v Raoni Barcelos
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Montel Jackson (Local)
Prediction 62.12%1.61fair odd
EV -2.47%
Edge -1.58%
Kelly -4.34%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.57
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.25%62.18%62.03%63.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.531.531.5766.67%65.19%65.36%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Raoni Barcelos (Visit)
Prediction 37.88%2.64fair odd
EV +0.387%
Edge +0.146%
Kelly +0.235%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 2.65
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.60%37.82%37.97%39.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.382.512.502.6542.02%39.89%40.00%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Montel Jackson (Local): 62.12%; Raoni Barcelos (Visit): 37.88%. For Raoni Barcelos (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.64. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.387%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (42 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -4.96%E -3.24%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV +0.387%E +0.146%K +0.235%G +0.001% | 3.1% | 2026-04-23 20:49 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -4.96%E -3.24%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -1.51%E -0.580%K -0.942%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-23 20:50 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.77%EV -4.96%E -3.24%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.23%EV -2.26%E -0.878%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-23 20:49 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -3.10%E -1.98%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -3.40%E -1.33%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-04-23 20:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -4.34%E -2.82%K -8.03%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -3.40%E -1.33%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-20 20:46 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.96%E -3.24%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -3.40%E -1.33%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-21 12:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.96%E -3.24%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -3.40%E -1.33%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-21 12:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.96%E -3.24%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -3.40%E -1.33%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-21 12:29 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.82%E -4.55%K -13.65%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -3.40%E -1.33%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-23 20:54 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.82%E -4.55%K -13.65%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -3.40%E -1.33%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-23 21:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.25%EV -4.34%E -2.82%K -8.03%G +0.000% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 37.75%EV -3.78%E -1.49%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-23 20:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.01%EV -3.72%E -2.40%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 2.53I 39.53%NM 37.99%EV -4.16%E -1.64%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-23 16:05 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -3.10%E -1.98%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -5.30%E -2.12%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-20 16:42 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -3.72%E -2.40%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -5.30%E -2.12%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-22 20:44 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -3.72%E -2.40%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -5.30%E -2.12%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-22 20:44 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.96%E -3.24%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.30%E -2.12%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-21 14:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.96%E -3.24%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.30%E -2.12%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 20:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.96%E -3.24%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.30%E -2.12%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 20:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.96%E -3.24%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.30%E -2.12%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 20:44 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.96%E -3.24%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.30%E -2.12%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 20:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.96%E -3.24%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.30%E -2.12%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 20:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.96%E -3.24%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.30%E -2.12%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 20:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.96%E -3.24%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.30%E -2.12%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 20:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.96%E -3.24%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.30%E -2.12%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-21 16:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.96%E -3.24%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.30%E -2.12%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-21 16:24 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.96%E -3.24%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.30%E -2.12%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 20:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.96%E -3.24%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.30%E -2.12%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 20:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.96%E -3.24%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.30%E -2.12%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 20:44 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.96%E -3.24%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.30%E -2.12%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 20:44 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.96%E -3.24%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.30%E -2.12%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 20:44 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.96%E -3.24%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.30%E -2.12%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-20 14:34 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.96%E -3.24%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.30%E -2.12%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 20:44 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.96%E -3.24%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.30%E -2.12%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 20:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.96%E -3.24%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.30%E -2.12%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 20:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -5.58%E -3.67%K -10.73%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -5.30%E -2.12%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-22 07:04 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -6.20%E -4.11%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -5.30%E -2.12%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-23 21:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.19%EV -3.10%E -1.98%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.81%EV -6.81%E -2.77%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-24 00:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.35%EV -3.72%E -2.40%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.65%EV -6.81%E -2.77%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-20 20:30 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -3.72%E -2.40%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -7.19%E -2.93%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-24 01:15 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -6.82%E -4.55%K -13.65%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -9.08%E -3.78%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-23 16:58 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -2.47%E -1.58%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -9.84%E -4.13%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-20 20:29 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -2.47%E -1.58%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -9.84%E -4.13%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-20 20:29 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.95% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 39.05% | 0.0% | 2026-04-23 22:19 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 62.03% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 37.97% | 0.1% | 2026-04-24 00:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.76% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 38.24% | 0.6% | 2026-04-23 20:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.76% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 38.24% | 0.6% | 2026-04-23 20:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.05% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.95% | 1.4% | 2026-04-23 20:40 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.60I 62.50%NM 61.17% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 38.83% | 2.2% | 2026-04-23 15:54 |
| Novig◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57% | 3.7% | 2026-04-24 01:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.50% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.50% | 4.6% | 2026-04-21 07:40 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.17% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.96% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87% | 7.0% | 2026-04-23 20:09 |