Language:English
Modestas Bukauskas v Christian Edwards
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Modestas Bukauskas (Local)
Prediction 80.36%1.24fair odd
EV +6.89%
Edge +5.18%
Kelly +20.86%
Growth +1.44%
assuming max odds 1.33
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.33%80.57%80.67%90.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.041.181.191.3396.15%84.53%84.03%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Christian Edwards (Visit)
Prediction 19.64%5.09fair odd
EV +96.35%
Edge +9.64%
Kelly +10.71%
Growth +10.31%
assuming max odds 10.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.50%19.43%19.33%27.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.455.654.2510.0028.99%17.71%23.53%10.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Modestas Bukauskas (Local): 80.36%; Christian Edwards (Visit): 19.64%. For Christian Edwards (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.09. 16 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 10.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +96.35%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -15.62%E -14.87%K -312.34%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV +96.35%E +9.64%K +10.71%G +10.31% | 5.2% | 2026-05-17 01:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -14.81%E -13.97%K -246.89%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV +76.72%E +8.52%K +9.59%G +7.36% | 5.5% | 2026-05-17 01:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -15.62%E -14.87%K -312.34%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV +76.72%E +8.52%K +9.59%G +7.36% | 6.3% | 2026-05-17 01:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.01%EV -15.62%E -14.87%K -312.34%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV +66.90%E +7.87%K +8.92%G +5.97% | 7.0% | 2026-05-17 01:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.10%EV -16.42%E -15.79%K -410.51%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.90%EV +66.90%E +7.87%K +8.92%G +5.97% | 7.9% | 2026-05-17 01:10 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.43%EV -14.81%E -13.97%K -246.89%G +0.000% | 8.10I 12.35%NM 11.57%EV +59.04%E +7.29%K +8.32%G +4.91% | 6.7% | 2026-05-17 01:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -13.21%E -12.23%K -165.07%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +57.08%E +7.14%K +8.15%G +4.65% | 5.1% | 2026-05-17 01:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 88.40%EV -15.62%E -14.87%K -312.34%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV +57.08%E +7.14%K +8.15%G +4.65% | 7.7% | 2026-05-17 01:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 88.40%EV -15.62%E -14.87%K -312.34%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV +57.08%E +7.14%K +8.15%G +4.65% | 7.7% | 2026-05-17 01:10 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 87.97%EV -14.81%E -13.97%K -246.89%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.03%EV +52.17%E +6.73%K +7.73%G +4.03% | 7.2% | 2026-05-17 01:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -13.21%E -12.23%K -165.07%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV +37.45%E +5.35%K +6.24%G +2.34% | 6.9% | 2026-05-17 01:09 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -13.21%E -12.23%K -165.07%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV +37.45%E +5.35%K +6.24%G +2.34% | 6.9% | 2026-05-17 01:09 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -14.01%E -13.09%K -200.14%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV +37.45%E +5.35%K +6.24%G +2.34% | 7.7% | 2026-05-17 01:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.08%EV -11.60%E -10.54%K -115.99%G +0.000% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 13.92%EV +33.52%E +4.93%K +5.78%G +1.94% | 5.6% | 2026-05-17 01:10 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.05%EV -9.99%E -8.92%K -83.26%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.95%EV +15.85%E +2.69%K +3.23%G +0.512% | 6.2% | 2026-05-17 01:09 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -8.38%E -7.35%K -59.89%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV +7.99%E +1.45%K +1.78%G +0.142% | 5.9% | 2026-05-17 01:09 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.84%EV -2.76%E -2.28%K -13.14%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -16.55%E -3.89%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-17 01:07 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.29%EV -4.37%E -3.67%K -22.98%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.71%EV -20.48%E -5.06%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-17 01:06 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.61%EV +4.47%E +3.44%K +14.91%G +0.667% | 3.82I 26.18%NM 25.39%EV -24.99%E -6.54%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-05-17 00:50 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV +2.06%E +1.62%K +7.64%G +0.158% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -25.39%E -6.68%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-17 00:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV +2.87%E +2.24%K +10.24%G +0.294% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -27.35%E -7.39%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-15 23:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV +2.87%E +2.24%K +10.24%G +0.294% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -27.35%E -7.39%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-15 23:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.75%EV +5.28%E +4.03%K +17.03%G +0.899% | 3.68I 27.17%NM 26.25%EV -27.74%E -7.54%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-05-17 00:58 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.43%EV +5.28%E +4.03%K +17.03%G +0.899% | 3.62I 27.62%NM 26.57%EV -28.92%E -7.99%K -11.04%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-15 14:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.73%EV +3.67%E +2.85%K +12.66%G +0.465% | 3.62I 27.62%NM 26.27%EV -28.92%E -7.99%K -11.04%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-16 16:29 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.75%EV +6.89%E +5.18%K +20.86%G +1.44% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.25%EV -30.30%E -8.53%K -11.88%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-17 00:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.50%EV +2.87%E +2.24%K +10.24%G +0.294% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -30.30%E -8.53%K -11.88%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-15 20:30 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.97%EV +4.47%E +3.44%K +14.91%G +0.667% | 3.51I 28.49%NM 27.03%EV -31.08%E -8.86%K -12.38%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-17 00:55 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.46%EV +6.89%E +5.18%K +20.86%G +1.44% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%EV -31.28%E -8.94%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-17 00:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV +5.28%E +4.03%K +17.03%G +0.899% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -31.28%E -8.94%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-16 15:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV +3.67%E +2.85%K +12.66%G +0.465% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -31.28%E -8.94%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-14 10:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV +6.08%E +4.61%K +19.01%G +1.16% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -32.26%E -9.35%K -13.17%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-16 00:44 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV +4.47%E +3.44%K +14.91%G +0.667% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -32.26%E -9.35%K -13.17%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-16 10:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.34I 74.63%NM 74.52% | 3.92I 25.51%NM 25.48% | 0.1% | 2026-05-17 00:51 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.09I 91.74%NM 91.07% | 11.11I 9.00%NM 8.93% | 0.7% | 2026-05-17 01:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.57% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.43% | 0.8% | 2026-05-17 00:58 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 74.11% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.89% | 3.0% | 2026-05-17 01:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.10I 90.91%NM 87.36% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.64% | 4.1% | 2026-05-17 01:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.93% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.07% | 7.0% | 2026-05-17 01:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08% | 8.3% | 2026-05-17 01:10 |
| Novig◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 45.66% | 1.00I 100.00%NM 54.34% | 84.0% | 2026-05-17 01:05 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.88% | 3.56I 28.09%NM 26.25% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87% | 7.0% | 2026-05-16 16:25 |