The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Miroslav Broz v Rafael Aronov

2026-08-01 16:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Miroslav Broz (Local)

Prediction 48.00%2.08fair odd
EV -6.40%
Edge -3.28%
Kelly -6.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.00%48.00%48.00%49.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.881.911.891.9553.19%52.45%52.91%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rafael Aronov (Visit)

Prediction 52.00%1.92fair odd
EV -5.36%
Edge -2.95%
Kelly -6.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.81%52.00%52.00%52.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.811.821.8255.56%55.15%54.95%54.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Miroslav Broz (Local): 48.00%; Rafael Aronov (Visit): 52.00%. For Rafael Aronov (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.92. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.82, with an expected value of -5.36%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.40%E -3.28%K -6.74%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.40%E -3.56%K -8.00%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-31 09:44
Unibet1.89I 52.91%NM 49.06%EV -9.28%E -4.91%K -10.43%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.94%EV -5.36%E -2.95%K -6.54%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-31 09:44
Grosvenor1.88I 53.19%NM 49.19%EV -9.76%E -5.19%K -11.09%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.81%EV -5.36%E -2.95%K -6.54%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-31 09:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.