The School of Odds

Miloš Janičić v Noah Gugnon

2026-08-01 17:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Miloš Janičić (Local)

Prediction 56.66%1.76fair odd
EV -3.67%
Edge -2.16%
Kelly -5.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.70%57.12%56.65%60.34%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.611.681.701.7062.11%59.57%58.82%58.82%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Noah Gugnon (Visit)

Prediction 43.34%2.31fair odd
EV +6.17%
Edge +2.52%
Kelly +4.26%
Growth +0.263%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.66%42.88%43.35%44.30%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.062.202.162.4548.54%45.52%46.30%40.82%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -8.77%E -5.45%K -14.38%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV +6.17%E +2.52%K +4.26%G +0.263%2.9%2026-07-26 06:15
BetUS1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%EV -8.77%E -5.45%K -14.38%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%EV +3.14%E +1.32%K +2.28%G +0.071%4.1%2026-07-26 06:14
Caesars1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -5.37%E -3.22%K -8.02%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -2.49%E -1.11%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-26 03:03
Coolbet1.69I 59.17%NM 56.89%EV -4.24%E -2.51%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.11%EV -3.36%E -1.51%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-26 03:04
DraftKings1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.67%E -2.16%K -5.25%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.66%E -2.12%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-26 03:04
Ladbrokes (AU)1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.81%E -2.86%K -7.07%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.66%E -2.12%K -3.88%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-26 03:05
Unibet1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -3.67%E -2.16%K -5.25%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -6.39%E -2.96%K -5.51%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-26 03:05
Virgin Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -3.67%E -2.16%K -5.25%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -6.39%E -2.96%K -5.51%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-26 03:04
LiveScore Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -3.67%E -2.16%K -5.25%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -6.39%E -2.96%K -5.51%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-26 03:04
TABtouch1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -3.67%E -2.16%K -5.25%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -6.39%E -2.96%K -5.51%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-26 03:05
BetRivers1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -3.67%E -2.16%K -5.25%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -6.39%E -2.96%K -5.51%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-26 03:05
ATG (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -3.67%E -2.16%K -5.25%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -6.39%E -2.96%K -5.51%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-26 03:05
Bally Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -3.67%E -2.16%K -5.25%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -6.39%E -2.96%K -5.51%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-26 03:04
betPARX1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -3.67%E -2.16%K -5.25%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -6.39%E -2.96%K -5.51%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-26 03:04
Betway1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.37%E -3.22%K -8.02%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -8.99%E -4.28%K -8.18%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-26 05:54
Grosvenor1.63I 61.35%NM 55.83%EV -7.64%E -4.69%K -12.12%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.17%EV -10.73%E -5.21%K -10.12%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-26 03:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet1.66I 60.24%NM 56.43%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.73%33.00I 3.03%NM 2.84%6.7%2026-07-26 06:19
Arbitrage (10 combinations) +0.36%Unibet 1.70 (59.0%) / BetOnline.ag 2.45 (41.0%)Show all 10 combinations
Miloš Janičić (Local)Noah Gugnon (Visit)Margin
DraftKings 1.70 (59.0%)BetOnline.ag 2.45 (41.0%)+0.361%
Unibet 1.70 (59.0%)BetOnline.ag 2.45 (41.0%)+0.361%
Virgin Bet 1.70 (59.0%)BetOnline.ag 2.45 (41.0%)+0.361%
LiveScore Bet 1.70 (59.0%)BetOnline.ag 2.45 (41.0%)+0.361%
TABtouch 1.70 (59.0%)BetOnline.ag 2.45 (41.0%)+0.361%
BetRivers 1.70 (59.0%)BetOnline.ag 2.45 (41.0%)+0.361%
ATG (SE) 1.70 (59.0%)BetOnline.ag 2.45 (41.0%)+0.361%
Bally Bet 1.70 (59.0%)BetOnline.ag 2.45 (41.0%)+0.361%
betPARX 1.70 (59.0%)BetOnline.ag 2.45 (41.0%)+0.361%
Coolbet 1.69 (59.2%)BetOnline.ag 2.45 (40.8%)+0.012%