Language:English
Miloš Janičić v Noah Gugnon
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Miloš Janičić (Local)
Prediction 53.47%1.87fair odd
EV +4.26%
Edge +2.19%
Kelly +4.49%
Growth +0.191%
assuming max odds 1.95
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.41%53.12%53.66%55.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.791.801.9558.82%55.83%55.56%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Noah Gugnon (Visit)
Prediction 46.53%2.15fair odd
EV +0.507%
Edge +0.235%
Kelly +0.437%
Growth +0.002%
assuming max odds 2.16
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.62%46.88%46.34%51.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.832.032.002.1654.64%49.36%50.00%46.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Miloš Janičić (Local): 53.47%; Noah Gugnon (Visit): 46.53%. For Miloš Janičić (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.87. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.26%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 50.87%EV +5.87%E +2.96%K +5.99%G +0.351% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 49.13%EV -4.61%E -2.25%K -4.39%G +0.000% | -0.7% | 2026-08-01 17:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV +4.26%E +2.19%K +4.49%G +0.191% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -14.85%E -8.11%K -17.89%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-27 15:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV +4.26%E +2.19%K +4.49%G +0.191% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -14.85%E -8.11%K -17.89%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-30 09:04 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -1.08%E -0.585%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -6.94%E -3.47%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-01 13:09 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -1.08%E -0.585%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -6.94%E -3.47%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-01 13:10 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -1.08%E -0.585%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -13.92%E -7.52%K -16.37%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-01 12:48 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.73%EV -2.69%E -1.48%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 2.03I 49.26%NM 47.27%EV -5.54%E -2.73%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-01 17:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 53.71%EV -3.22%E -1.78%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.29%EV -2.29%E -1.09%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-01 16:49 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -3.22%E -1.78%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -6.94%E -3.47%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-01 16:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -3.22%E -1.78%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -6.94%E -3.47%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-01 16:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -3.22%E -1.78%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -6.94%E -3.47%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-01 16:09 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -3.22%E -1.78%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -6.94%E -3.47%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-01 16:09 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -3.22%E -1.78%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -6.94%E -3.47%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-01 16:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -3.22%E -1.78%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -6.94%E -3.47%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-01 16:10 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -3.22%E -1.78%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -6.94%E -3.47%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-01 16:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -3.22%E -1.78%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -6.94%E -3.47%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-01 16:10 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -3.22%E -1.78%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -6.94%E -3.47%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-01 16:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.76%E -2.09%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.61%E -2.25%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-01 16:50 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.76%E -2.09%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.94%E -3.47%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-01 16:09 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -3.76%E -2.09%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -9.26%E -4.75%K -9.75%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-01 16:24 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -5.36%E -3.03%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -2.29%E -1.09%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-01 17:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -5.36%E -3.03%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -4.61%E -2.25%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-01 16:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV -5.89%E -3.35%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -1.35%E -0.639%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-01 17:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -5.89%E -3.35%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -4.61%E -2.25%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-01 16:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -6.43%E -3.67%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -2.29%E -1.09%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-01 17:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -6.43%E -3.67%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -2.29%E -1.09%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-01 16:59 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -6.96%E -4.00%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV +0.507%E +0.235%K +0.437%G +0.002% | 3.8% | 2026-08-01 17:09 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -6.96%E -4.00%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV +0.041%E +0.019%K +0.036%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-01 17:03 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -6.96%E -4.00%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -0.424%E -0.198%K -0.372%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-01 17:10 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.96%E -4.00%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.61%E -2.25%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-01 17:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.50%E -4.33%K -10.27%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.29%E -1.09%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-01 16:58 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.50%E -4.33%K -10.27%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.29%E -1.09%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-01 16:59 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.60%EV -7.50%E -4.33%K -10.27%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.40%EV -10.66%E -5.55%K -11.59%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-01 16:09 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -8.03%E -4.67%K -11.16%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -1.35%E -0.639%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-01 17:10 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.80%EV -9.10%E -5.35%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.20%EV -7.87%E -3.97%K -8.03%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-01 16:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.96I 51.02%NM 51.00% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 49.00% | 0.0% | 2026-08-01 17:05 |
| Novig◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.69% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 44.31% | 0.3% | 2026-08-01 17:10 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.39% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 45.61% | 1.0% | 2026-08-01 17:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.83I 54.64%NM 53.90% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.10% | 1.4% | 2026-08-01 17:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.83I 54.64%NM 53.90% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.10% | 1.4% | 2026-08-01 17:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.83I 54.64%NM 53.90% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.10% | 1.4% | 2026-08-01 17:10 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.80% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 45.20% | 1.9% | 2026-08-01 17:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.01% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.99% | 3.9% | 2026-08-01 17:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.84I 54.35%NM 50.40% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.60% | 7.8% | 2026-08-01 14:55 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.65% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.49% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.86% | 7.6% | 2026-08-01 16:32 |
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