The School of Odds
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Miles Johns v Gianni Vazquez

Kickoff: 2026-08-08 22:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

32 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Miles Johns (Local)

Prediction 64.94%1.54fair odd
EV -2.59%
Edge -1.72%
Kelly -5.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.31%64.85%64.94%65.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.421.481.491.5070.42%67.68%67.11%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gianni Vazquez (Visit)

Prediction 35.06%2.85fair odd
EV -1.84%
Edge -0.657%
Kelly -1.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.12%35.15%35.06%36.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.692.652.8040.82%37.24%37.74%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Miles Johns (Local): 64.94%; Gianni Vazquez (Visit): 35.06%. For Gianni Vazquez (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.85. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.80, with an expected value of -1.84%; they did not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.79%EV -2.59%E -1.72%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.21%EV -3.24%E -1.17%K -1.84%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-08 22:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -2.59%E -1.72%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -7.10%E -2.68%K -4.30%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-08 20:00
Betsson🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -2.59%E -1.72%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -7.10%E -2.68%K -4.30%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-08 10:35
NordicBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -2.59%E -1.72%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -7.10%E -2.68%K -4.30%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-08 10:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -2.59%E -1.72%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -7.80%E -2.97%K -4.79%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-08 17:14
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -2.59%E -1.72%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -8.15%E -3.11%K -5.03%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-08 17:12
Betway🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -2.59%E -1.72%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -8.15%E -3.11%K -5.03%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-08 19:14
Coolbet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -3.23%E -2.17%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -5.35%E -1.98%K -3.14%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-08 21:54
DraftKings🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -3.23%E -2.17%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -5.35%E -1.98%K -3.14%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-08 21:59
BetRivers🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -3.23%E -2.17%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -7.80%E -2.97%K -4.79%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 20:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -3.23%E -2.17%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -7.80%E -2.97%K -4.79%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 19:59
TABtouch🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -3.23%E -2.17%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -7.80%E -2.97%K -4.79%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 19:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -3.23%E -2.17%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -7.80%E -2.97%K -4.79%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 19:59
Unibet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -3.23%E -2.17%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -7.80%E -2.97%K -4.79%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 19:59
ATG (SE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -3.23%E -2.17%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -7.80%E -2.97%K -4.79%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 19:55
Bally Bet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -3.23%E -2.17%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -7.80%E -2.97%K -4.79%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 20:00
betPARX🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -3.23%E -2.17%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -7.80%E -2.97%K -4.79%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 20:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.42%EV -3.88%E -2.62%K -8.09%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.58%EV -1.84%E -0.657%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-08 22:00
Bovada🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.18%EV -3.88%E -2.62%K -8.09%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.82%EV -2.89%E -1.04%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-08 21:25
FanDuel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.09%EV -3.88%E -2.62%K -8.09%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.91%EV -3.24%E -1.17%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-08 21:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -3.88%E -2.62%K -8.09%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -8.85%E -3.40%K -5.53%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-08 20:04
BetAnything🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -4.53%E -3.08%K -9.65%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -1.84%E -0.657%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-08 21:40
Fliff🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.53%E -3.08%K -9.65%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -7.10%E -2.68%K -4.30%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-08 21:29
SportsBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.07%EV -5.18%E -3.55%K -11.27%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.93%EV -4.65%E -1.71%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-08 21:29
Caesars🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -5.83%E -4.02%K -12.96%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -1.84%E -0.657%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-08 21:58
BetMGM🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -5.83%E -4.02%K -12.96%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -1.84%E -0.657%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-08 21:58
Unibet (UK)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.83%E -4.02%K -12.96%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -3.59%E -1.31%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-08 21:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.83%E -4.02%K -12.96%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -3.59%E -1.31%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-08 21:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.83%E -4.02%K -12.96%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -3.59%E -1.31%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-08 21:59
Bet Right🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.83%E -4.02%K -12.96%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -3.59%E -1.31%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-08 22:00
PlayUp🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.48%E -4.50%K -14.73%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -3.59%E -1.31%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-08 21:55
Grosvenor🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.31%EV -7.78%E -5.48%K -18.53%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.69%EV -14.11%E -5.76%K -9.73%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-08 21:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (8)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.50I 66.67%NM 66.59%2.99I 33.44%NM 33.41%0.1%2026-08-08 21:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.53I 65.36%NM 64.99%2.84I 35.21%NM 35.01%0.6%2026-08-08 22:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.53I 65.36%NM 64.99%2.84I 35.21%NM 35.01%0.6%2026-08-08 22:00
Matchbook◎1.53I 65.36%NM 64.99%2.84I 35.21%NM 35.01%0.6%2026-08-08 22:00
Kalshi◎1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70%0.8%2026-08-08 16:44
Novig◎1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70%0.8%2026-08-08 22:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.53I 65.36%NM 64.83%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.17%0.8%2026-08-08 22:00
ProphetX◎1.50I 66.67%NM 65.12%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.88%2.4%2026-08-08 22:00

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 61.91%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.17%48.00I 2.08%NM 1.92%8.4%2026-08-08 21:30