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Miles Johns v Gianni Vazquez

2026-08-08 21:40 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Miles Johns (Local)

Prediction 59.21%1.69fair odd
EV -3.49%
Edge -2.14%
Kelly -5.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.99%59.21%59.05%60.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.611.631.6364.10%62.21%61.35%61.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gianni Vazquez (Visit)

Prediction 40.79%2.45fair odd
EV -1.70%
Edge -0.704%
Kelly -1.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.45%40.79%40.95%42.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.182.322.282.4145.87%43.18%43.86%41.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Miles Johns (Local): 59.21%; Gianni Vazquez (Visit): 40.79%. For Gianni Vazquez (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.45. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.41, with an expected value of -1.70%; they do not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -3.49%E -2.14%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -4.14%E -1.76%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-07 18:35
BetRivers🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -3.49%E -2.14%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -7.00%E -3.07%K -5.47%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-07 16:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -3.49%E -2.14%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -7.00%E -3.07%K -5.47%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-07 16:00
TABtouch🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -3.49%E -2.14%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -7.00%E -3.07%K -5.47%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-07 16:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -3.49%E -2.14%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -7.00%E -3.07%K -5.47%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-07 16:00
Unibet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -3.49%E -2.14%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -7.00%E -3.07%K -5.47%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-07 15:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -3.49%E -2.14%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -7.00%E -3.07%K -5.47%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-07 16:00
Bally Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -3.49%E -2.14%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -7.00%E -3.07%K -5.47%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-07 16:00
betPARX🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -3.49%E -2.14%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -7.00%E -3.07%K -5.47%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-07 16:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -3.49%E -2.14%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -8.22%E -3.65%K -6.58%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-07 15:25
BetAnything🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.67%E -2.90%K -7.66%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.14%E -1.76%K -3.07%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-07 18:34
BetOnline.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -4.67%E -2.90%K -7.66%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -8.22%E -3.65%K -6.58%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-07 14:40
Pinnacle🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.10%EV -5.26%E -3.29%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 39.90%EV -1.70%E -0.704%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-07 19:05
FanDuel🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -6.45%E -4.08%K -11.12%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -2.10%E -0.876%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-07 18:50
SportsBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.55%EV -7.04%E -4.48%K -12.35%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 39.45%EV -1.70%E -0.704%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-07 18:50
Betway🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -7.04%E -4.48%K -12.35%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -2.10%E -0.876%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-07 14:44
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -7.04%E -4.48%K -12.35%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -2.92%E -1.23%K -2.12%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-07 18:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -7.04%E -4.48%K -12.35%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -2.92%E -1.23%K -2.12%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-07 18:48
Grosvenor🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.29%EV -7.63%E -4.89%K -13.63%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.71%EV -11.08%E -5.08%K -9.39%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-07 15:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.64I 60.98%NM 59.80%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.20%2.0%2026-08-07 18:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.53I 65.36%NM 59.42%2.24I 44.64%NM 40.58%10.0%2026-08-07 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.53I 65.36%NM 59.42%2.24I 44.64%NM 40.58%10.0%2026-08-07 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.53I 65.36%NM 59.42%2.24I 44.64%NM 40.58%10.0%2026-08-07 18:55

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.04%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.09%33.00I 3.03%NM 2.87%5.7%2026-08-07 19:00