The School of Odds
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Mickey Gall v Sedriques Dumas

Kickoff: 2026-09-26 21:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mickey Gall (Local)

Prediction 55.81%1.79fair odd
EV -1.21%
Edge -0.682%
Kelly -1.57%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.09%56.01%56.27%59.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.691.671.7765.36%59.32%59.88%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sedriques Dumas (Visit)

Prediction 44.19%2.26fair odd
EV +3.83%
Edge +1.63%
Kelly +2.84%
Growth +0.109%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.66%43.99%43.73%45.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.022.172.202.3549.50%45.99%45.45%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mickey Gall (Local): 55.81%; Sedriques Dumas (Visit): 44.19%. For Sedriques Dumas (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.26. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.83%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -10.14%E -6.30%K -16.62%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV +3.83%E +1.63%K +2.84%G +0.109%4.7%2026-09-20 17:59
Bovada🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -5.67%E -3.36%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -0.584%E -0.259%K -0.467%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-24 18:48
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -6.79%E -4.07%K -10.13%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -0.584%E -0.259%K -0.467%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-24 12:49
TAB🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -7.91%E -4.79%K -12.16%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -0.584%E -0.259%K -0.467%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-21 23:14
Fliff🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -9.58%E -5.91%K -15.45%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -0.584%E -0.259%K -0.467%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-19 17:44
Pinnacle🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.56%E -2.66%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.79%E -1.27%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-24 14:20
Coolbet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.56%E -2.66%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.79%E -1.27%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-24 17:45
DraftKings🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -5.11%E -3.01%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -2.79%E -1.27%K -2.33%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-24 14:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.79%E -4.07%K -10.13%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.79%E -1.27%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-24 14:55
BetRivers🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.79%E -4.07%K -10.13%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.79%E -1.27%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-24 14:55
TABtouch🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.79%E -4.07%K -10.13%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.79%E -1.27%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-24 14:54
LiveScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.79%E -4.07%K -10.13%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.79%E -1.27%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-24 14:54
Unibet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.79%E -4.07%K -10.13%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.79%E -1.27%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-24 14:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.79%E -4.07%K -10.13%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.79%E -1.27%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-24 14:55
betPARX🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.79%E -4.07%K -10.13%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.79%E -1.27%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-24 14:55
Bally Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.79%E -4.07%K -10.13%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.79%E -1.27%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-24 14:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.79%E -4.07%K -10.13%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.79%E -1.27%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-24 14:54
Caesars🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -2.88%E -1.66%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -5.00%E -2.33%K -4.35%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-24 16:37
NordicBet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -2.88%E -1.66%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -5.00%E -2.33%K -4.35%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-24 09:29
ReBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -6.23%E -3.71%K -9.16%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -5.00%E -2.33%K -4.35%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-24 09:24
Unibet (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.79%E -4.07%K -10.13%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.00%E -2.33%K -4.35%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-24 09:24
Betr (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.79%E -4.07%K -10.13%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.00%E -2.33%K -4.35%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-24 18:49
Bet Right🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.56%E -2.66%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.44%E -2.54%K -4.78%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-24 09:04
BetOnline.ag🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.38%EV -1.21%E -0.682%K -1.57%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 45.62%EV -6.77%E -3.21%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-24 18:45
Betsson🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.24%EV -4.56%E -2.66%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 44.76%EV -6.77%E -3.21%K -6.10%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-24 09:30
BetUS🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -1.21%E -0.682%K -1.57%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -7.21%E -3.43%K -6.56%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-24 18:46
Betway🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.44%E -1.99%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.21%E -3.43%K -6.56%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-24 05:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -4.00%E -2.32%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -7.21%E -3.43%K -6.56%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-24 19:49
BetAnything🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -2.88%E -1.66%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -9.42%E -4.60%K -8.97%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-24 18:20
Grosvenor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 56.90%EV -14.60%E -9.54%K -27.55%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.10%EV -10.75%E -5.32%K -10.54%G +0.000%14.9%2026-09-24 14:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.77I 56.50%NM 56.51%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.49%-0.0%2026-09-24 19:10
Novig◎1.80I 55.56%NM 54.66%2.17I 46.08%NM 45.34%1.6%2026-09-24 19:02
Kalshi◎1.64I 60.98%NM 59.20%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.80%3.0%2026-09-22 21:30
ProphetX◎1.72I 58.14%NM 55.78%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.22%4.2%2026-09-24 18:25
Matchbook◎1.72I 58.14%NM 55.44%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.56%4.9%2026-09-24 18:25

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.87%2.13I 46.95%NM 43.28%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.84%8.5%2026-09-24 13:20