Language:English
Michael Page v Sam Patterson
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Michael Page (Local)
Prediction 65.00%1.54fair odd
EV -0.555%
Edge -0.363%
Kelly -1.05%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.53
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.03%65.24%64.53%68.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.471.491.5371.43%67.93%67.11%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Sam Patterson (Visit)
Prediction 35.00%2.86fair odd
EV +6.76%
Edge +2.22%
Kelly +3.30%
Growth +0.223%
assuming max odds 3.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.46%34.76%35.47%37.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.712.653.0540.00%36.92%37.74%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Michael Page (Local): 65.00%; Sam Patterson (Visit): 35.00%. For Sam Patterson (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.86. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.05, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.76%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -9.00%E -6.43%K -22.51%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV +6.76%E +2.22%K +3.30%G +0.223% | 4.2% | 2026-03-21 21:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -9.00%E -6.43%K -22.51%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV +6.76%E +2.22%K +3.30%G +0.223% | 4.2% | 2026-03-21 21:34 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -7.05%E -4.93%K -16.41%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV +1.51%E +0.520%K +0.794%G +0.012% | 4.4% | 2026-03-21 21:27 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 66.21%EV -4.45%E -3.03%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.79%EV +0.809%E +0.281%K +0.430%G +0.003% | 2.7% | 2026-03-21 21:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 66.21%EV -4.45%E -3.03%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.79%EV +0.809%E +0.281%K +0.430%G +0.003% | 2.7% | 2026-03-21 21:34 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.04%EV -5.75%E -3.97%K -12.79%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.96%EV -1.29%E -0.458%K -0.710%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-21 21:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -5.10%E -3.50%K -11.10%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -1.99%E -0.711%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-21 21:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -5.75%E -3.97%K -12.79%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -1.99%E -0.711%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-21 21:09 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -5.75%E -3.97%K -12.79%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -1.99%E -0.711%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-21 21:09 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -5.75%E -3.97%K -12.79%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -1.99%E -0.711%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-21 21:09 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -5.75%E -3.97%K -12.79%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -1.99%E -0.711%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-21 21:31 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -7.05%E -4.93%K -16.41%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -1.99%E -0.711%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-21 21:39 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.71%EV -2.50%E -1.67%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 35.29%EV -3.74%E -1.36%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-03-21 21:29 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.32%EV -5.10%E -3.50%K -11.10%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -3.74%E -1.36%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-21 21:14 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.75%E -3.97%K -12.79%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -3.74%E -1.36%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 21:19 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -9.00%E -6.43%K -22.51%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -3.74%E -1.36%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-21 21:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -2.50%E -1.67%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -5.49%E -2.03%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-21 21:12 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -2.50%E -1.67%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -5.49%E -2.03%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-21 21:39 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.11%EV -2.50%E -1.67%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 35.89%EV -6.19%E -2.31%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-21 21:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.25%EV -3.80%E -2.57%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 35.75%EV -6.89%E -2.59%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 21:39 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -2.50%E -1.67%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -7.24%E -2.73%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-18 23:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -3.80%E -2.57%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -7.24%E -2.73%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 21:19 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -3.15%E -2.12%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -7.94%E -3.02%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-18 23:35 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -3.15%E -2.12%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -7.94%E -3.02%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-18 23:35 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -3.15%E -2.12%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -7.94%E -3.02%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-18 23:35 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -3.15%E -2.12%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -7.94%E -3.02%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-18 23:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -3.15%E -2.12%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -7.94%E -3.02%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-18 23:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -3.15%E -2.12%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -7.94%E -3.02%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-18 23:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -3.15%E -2.12%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -7.94%E -3.02%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-18 23:35 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -3.15%E -2.12%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -7.94%E -3.02%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-18 23:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -3.15%E -2.12%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -7.94%E -3.02%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-18 23:35 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -3.15%E -2.12%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -7.94%E -3.02%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-18 23:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -3.15%E -2.12%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -7.94%E -3.02%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-18 23:35 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -3.15%E -2.12%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -7.94%E -3.02%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-18 23:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -2.50%E -1.67%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -8.29%E -3.16%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 21:39 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.40%E -4.45%K -14.56%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -8.29%E -3.16%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-21 21:24 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -2.50%E -1.67%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -8.99%E -3.46%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-21 11:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -2.50%E -1.67%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -8.99%E -3.46%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-21 21:04 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.18%EV -6.40%E -4.45%K -14.56%G +0.000% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 35.82%EV -9.69%E -3.76%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-21 21:24 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -3.15%E -2.12%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -10.74%E -4.21%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-21 18:19 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -0.555%E -0.363%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -12.49%E -5.00%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-21 18:24 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.49I 67.11%NM 67.11% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 32.89% | 0.0% | 2026-03-21 21:34 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.22% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.78% | 0.7% | 2026-03-21 21:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.06% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.94% | 0.9% | 2026-03-21 21:39 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.37% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.63% | 1.1% | 2026-03-21 21:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.21% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.79% | 1.4% | 2026-03-21 21:39 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.06% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.94% | 1.6% | 2026-03-21 21:39 |
| Novig◎ | 1.48I 67.57%NM 66.21% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.79% | 2.1% | 2026-03-21 21:39 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.41% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 34.59% | 4.0% | 2026-03-21 21:38 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.14% | 2.67I 37.45%NM 35.00% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87% | 7.0% | 2026-03-21 21:09 |