Language:English
Michael Page v Nursultan Ruziboev
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Michael Page (Local)
Prediction 60.42%1.66fair odd
EV -2.73%
Edge -1.69%
Kelly -4.47%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.61
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.82%60.43%60.53%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.561.571.6168.97%63.95%63.69%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Nursultan Ruziboev (Visit)
Prediction 39.58%2.53fair odd
EV -1.05%
Edge -0.418%
Kelly -0.697%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.50%39.57%39.47%41.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.392.382.5046.51%41.87%41.93%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Michael Page (Local): 60.42%; Nursultan Ruziboev (Visit): 39.58%. For Nursultan Ruziboev (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.53. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.50, with an expected value of -1.05%; they did not produce positive expected value.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.75%EV -2.73%E -1.69%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 2.39I 41.84%NM 40.25%EV -5.40%E -2.26%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-03 21:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -2.73%E -1.69%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -8.96%E -3.90%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-03 05:39 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -3.94%E -2.47%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -3.02%E -1.23%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-03 23:24 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -3.94%E -2.47%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -3.02%E -1.23%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-04 12:36 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.35%EV -3.94%E -2.47%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.65%EV -4.21%E -1.74%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-03 23:24 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -3.94%E -2.47%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -5.00%E -2.08%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-02 17:34 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -3.94%E -2.47%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -5.00%E -2.08%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-03 23:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -4.54%E -2.87%K -7.83%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -5.80%E -2.43%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-02 17:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -4.54%E -2.87%K -7.83%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -5.80%E -2.43%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-02 17:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -4.54%E -2.87%K -7.83%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -5.80%E -2.43%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-02 17:35 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.49%EV -4.54%E -2.87%K -7.83%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.51%EV -8.17%E -3.52%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-02 07:39 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.23%EV -5.14%E -3.28%K -9.02%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.77%EV -1.84%E -0.741%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-04 11:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.14%E -3.28%K -9.02%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -3.02%E -1.23%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-04 11:39 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.14%E -3.28%K -9.02%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -3.02%E -1.23%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-03 21:08 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.65%EV -5.14%E -3.28%K -9.02%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.35%EV -4.21%E -1.74%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-03 20:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.14%E -3.28%K -9.02%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -5.00%E -2.08%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-01 21:45 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.14%E -3.28%K -9.02%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -5.00%E -2.08%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-03 21:09 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.14%E -3.28%K -9.02%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -5.00%E -2.08%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-03 21:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.14%E -3.28%K -9.02%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.80%E -2.43%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-29 18:04 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.14%E -3.28%K -9.02%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.80%E -2.43%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-29 18:04 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.14%E -3.28%K -9.02%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.80%E -2.43%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-02 17:35 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.14%E -3.28%K -9.02%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.80%E -2.43%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-02 17:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.14%E -3.28%K -9.02%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.80%E -2.43%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-02 17:35 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.14%E -3.28%K -9.02%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.80%E -2.43%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-02 17:35 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.14%E -3.28%K -9.02%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.80%E -2.43%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-02 17:35 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.14%E -3.28%K -9.02%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.80%E -2.43%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-02 17:35 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.14%E -3.28%K -9.02%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.98%E -2.97%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-03 21:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.80%EV -5.75%E -3.68%K -10.26%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.20%EV -4.21%E -1.74%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 03:48 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.75%E -3.68%K -10.26%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -5.00%E -2.08%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-03 23:25 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.41%EV -5.75%E -3.68%K -10.26%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.59%EV -5.80%E -2.43%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-03 23:25 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%EV -6.96%E -4.52%K -12.88%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -3.02%E -1.23%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-29 12:35 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -6.96%E -4.52%K -12.88%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -5.00%E -2.08%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-04 11:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 59.90%EV -6.96%E -4.52%K -12.88%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -8.96%E -3.90%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-03 23:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 59.90%EV -6.96%E -4.52%K -12.88%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -8.96%E -3.90%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-04 13:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.21%EV -8.16%E -5.37%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.79%EV -8.96%E -3.90%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-03 23:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -9.37%E -6.25%K -18.75%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -1.05%E -0.418%K -0.697%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-03 18:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -9.37%E -6.25%K -18.75%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -1.05%E -0.418%K -0.697%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-03 18:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 59.72%EV -12.39%E -8.55%K -27.54%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 40.28%EV -14.90%E -6.93%K -12.96%G +0.000% | 15.5% | 2026-09-02 17:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.70% | 2.61I 38.31%NM 38.30% | 0.0% | 2026-09-04 14:04 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.91% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 39.09% | 0.7% | 2026-09-04 13:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.91% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 39.09% | 0.7% | 2026-09-04 13:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.91% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 39.09% | 0.7% | 2026-09-04 13:40 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.83% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.17% | 2.1% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.64% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.36% | 2.4% | 2026-09-04 12:05 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.12% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.88% | 2.9% | 2026-09-04 11:35 |
| Novig◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42% | 4.1% | 2026-09-04 14:05 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.03% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.10% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87% | 7.0% | 2026-09-02 07:40 |