Language:English
Michael Chiesa v Niko Price
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Michael Chiesa (Local)
Prediction 85.61%1.17fair odd
EV -1.55%
Edge -1.35%
Kelly -10.32%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
81.86%85.49%85.58%86.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.081.121.131.1592.59%89.17%88.89%86.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Niko Price (Visit)
Prediction 14.39%6.95fair odd
EV +4.33%
Edge +0.597%
Kelly +0.692%
Growth +0.030%
assuming max odds 7.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.17%14.51%14.42%18.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.106.346.257.2519.61%15.77%16.00%13.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Michael Chiesa (Local): 85.61%; Niko Price (Visit): 14.39%. For Niko Price (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.95. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.33%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (42 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.83%EV -5.83%E -5.30%K -58.29%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 13.17%EV +4.33%E +0.597%K +0.692%G +0.030% | 4.7% | 2026-03-26 12:19 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.83%EV -5.83%E -5.30%K -58.29%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 13.17%EV +4.33%E +0.597%K +0.692%G +0.030% | 4.7% | 2026-03-26 12:24 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -4.97%E -4.48%K -45.21%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV +0.730%E +0.104%K +0.122%G +0.001% | 4.4% | 2026-03-27 16:09 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -4.97%E -4.48%K -45.21%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV +0.730%E +0.104%K +0.122%G +0.001% | 4.4% | 2026-03-27 23:24 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -4.97%E -4.48%K -45.21%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV +0.730%E +0.104%K +0.122%G +0.001% | 4.4% | 2026-03-27 18:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -4.97%E -4.48%K -45.21%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV +0.730%E +0.104%K +0.122%G +0.001% | 4.4% | 2026-03-27 16:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -4.97%E -4.48%K -45.21%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV +0.730%E +0.104%K +0.122%G +0.001% | 4.4% | 2026-03-26 12:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -4.97%E -4.48%K -45.21%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -2.87%E -0.425%K -0.499%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-27 19:22 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -4.97%E -4.48%K -45.21%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -2.87%E -0.425%K -0.499%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-28 01:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -4.97%E -4.48%K -45.21%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -2.87%E -0.425%K -0.499%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-27 23:35 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.90%EV -5.83%E -5.30%K -58.29%G +0.000% | 6.70I 14.93%NM 14.10%EV -3.59%E -0.535%K -0.629%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-27 19:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -4.12%E -3.68%K -34.31%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -6.47%E -0.995%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-27 12:54 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -4.12%E -3.68%K -34.31%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -6.47%E -0.995%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-27 12:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.97%E -4.48%K -45.21%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -6.47%E -0.995%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-26 22:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%EV -7.54%E -6.98%K -94.26%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -6.47%E -0.995%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-27 21:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.22%EV -4.97%E -4.48%K -45.21%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.78%EV -7.90%E -1.24%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-27 15:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -3.26%E -2.89%K -25.08%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -10.06%E -1.61%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-26 15:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -3.26%E -2.89%K -25.08%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -10.06%E -1.61%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-26 15:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -3.26%E -2.89%K -25.08%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -10.06%E -1.61%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-26 15:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -3.26%E -2.89%K -25.08%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -10.06%E -1.61%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-26 15:44 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -3.26%E -2.89%K -25.08%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -10.06%E -1.61%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-26 15:44 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -3.26%E -2.89%K -25.08%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -10.06%E -1.61%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-26 15:44 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -3.26%E -2.89%K -25.08%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -10.06%E -1.61%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-26 15:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -3.26%E -2.89%K -25.08%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -10.06%E -1.61%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-26 15:44 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -3.26%E -2.89%K -25.08%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -10.06%E -1.61%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-26 15:44 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -3.26%E -2.89%K -25.08%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -10.06%E -1.61%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-26 15:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -3.26%E -2.89%K -25.08%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -10.06%E -1.61%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-26 15:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -3.26%E -2.89%K -25.08%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -10.06%E -1.61%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-26 15:44 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -3.26%E -2.89%K -25.08%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -10.06%E -1.61%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-26 15:44 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.92%EV -4.97%E -4.48%K -45.21%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -10.06%E -1.61%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-27 16:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.92%EV -4.97%E -4.48%K -45.21%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -10.06%E -1.61%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-26 11:29 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.47%EV -2.40%E -2.11%K -17.18%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.53%EV -10.78%E -1.74%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-28 01:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.26%EV -3.26%E -2.89%K -25.08%G +0.000% | 6.05I 16.53%NM 15.74%EV -12.94%E -2.14%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-25 21:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -3.26%E -2.89%K -25.08%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -13.66%E -2.28%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-28 00:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.12%E -3.68%K -34.31%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -13.66%E -2.28%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-26 09:29 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -4.97%E -4.48%K -45.21%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -13.66%E -2.28%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-27 10:45 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.45%EV -1.55%E -1.35%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.55%EV -16.54%E -2.85%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-25 11:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.45%EV -1.55%E -1.35%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.55%EV -16.54%E -2.85%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-25 11:50 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.70%EV -4.12%E -3.68%K -34.31%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -17.26%E -3.00%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-26 20:34 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -1.55%E -1.35%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -20.86%E -3.79%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-27 19:03 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -2.40%E -2.11%K -17.18%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -20.86%E -3.79%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-25 21:05 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.86%EV -3.26%E -2.89%K -25.08%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.14%EV -26.61%E -5.22%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-23 17:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 86.12% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.88% | 0.1% | 2026-03-28 01:49 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.15I 86.96%NM 85.29% | 6.67I 14.99%NM 14.71% | 1.9% | 2026-03-28 02:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.14I 87.72%NM 85.64% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.36% | 2.4% | 2026-03-28 01:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.14I 87.72%NM 85.64% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.36% | 2.4% | 2026-03-28 01:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.14I 87.72%NM 85.64% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.36% | 2.4% | 2026-03-28 01:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.68% | 6.30I 15.87%NM 15.32% | 3.6% | 2026-03-27 22:20 |
| Novig◎ | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.60% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.40% | 6.5% | 2026-03-28 01:45 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.45% | 6.30I 15.87%NM 14.70% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.85% | 8.0% | 2026-03-27 10:44 |