The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Michael Boylan v Landry Ward

Kickoff: 2026-08-08 00:20 UTC

Final: Michael Boylan 0–1 Landry Ward

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Michael Boylan (Local)

Prediction 28.05%3.57fair odd
EV -1.83%
Edge -0.524%
Kelly -0.734%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.08%28.05%28.05%28.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.403.383.5029.85%29.41%29.63%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Landry Ward (Visit)

Prediction 71.95%1.39fair odd
EV -3.58%
Edge -2.67%
Kelly -10.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.73%71.95%71.95%72.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.291.311.291.3477.52%76.53%77.22%74.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Michael Boylan (Local): 28.05%; Landry Ward (Visit): 71.95%. For Michael Boylan (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.57. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.50, with an expected value of -1.83%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -1.83%E -0.524%K -0.734%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.46%E -4.97%K -21.54%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-08 00:14
BetOnline.ag🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -3.24%E -0.938%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 72.18%EV -4.30%E -3.24%K -13.04%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-07 10:50
FanDuel🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -4.64%E -1.36%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -3.58%E -2.67%K -10.54%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-08 00:00
Unibet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -6.04%E -1.80%K -2.57%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.20%EV -7.18%E -5.57%K -24.76%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-07 18:25
Grosvenor🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -6.04%E -1.80%K -2.57%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.20%EV -7.18%E -5.57%K -24.76%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-07 18:24
Bally Bet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -6.04%E -1.80%K -2.57%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.20%EV -7.18%E -5.57%K -24.76%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-07 18:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.