The School of Odds
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Michael Boylan v Landry Ward

2026-08-08 02:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Michael Boylan (Local)

Prediction 34.13%2.93fair odd
EV -2.39%
Edge -0.836%
Kelly -1.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.64%34.13%34.13%34.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.722.772.752.8636.76%36.15%36.36%34.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Landry Ward (Visit)

Prediction 65.87%1.52fair odd
EV -4.49%
Edge -3.09%
Kelly -9.97%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.38%65.87%65.87%66.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.421.401.4571.43%70.52%71.43%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Michael Boylan (Local): 34.13%; Landry Ward (Visit): 65.87%. For Michael Boylan (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.93. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.86, with an expected value of -2.39%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 33.64%EV -2.39%E -0.836%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 66.36%EV -4.49%E -3.09%K -9.97%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-05 15:59
Unibet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.15%E -2.23%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.78%E -5.56%K -19.45%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-05 16:00
Grosvenor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.15%E -2.23%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.78%E -5.56%K -19.45%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-05 16:00
Bally Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.15%E -2.23%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.78%E -5.56%K -19.45%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-05 16:00
FanDuel🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 34.62%EV -7.17%E -2.64%K -4.17%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.38%EV -5.15%E -3.57%K -11.70%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-05 16:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.