Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Michael Aswell v Joo Sang Yoo

Kickoff: 2026-09-19 23:40 UTC

Final: Michael Aswell 1–0 Joo Sang Yoo

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

32 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

39%

61%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Michael Aswell (Local)

Prediction 38.72%2.58fair odd

EV +10.35%

Edge +3.63%

Kelly +5.59%

Growth +0.579%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

33.72%38.38%38.73%40.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.252.492.502.8544.44%40.09%40.00%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Joo Sang Yoo (Visit)

Prediction 61.28%1.63fair odd

EV -1.95%

Edge -1.22%

Kelly -3.25%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

59.49%61.62%61.27%66.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.411.541.541.6070.92%64.91%64.94%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Michael Aswell (Local): 38.72%; Joo Sang Yoo (Visit): 61.28%. For Michael Aswell (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.58. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.35%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
NordicBet🎯	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.72%EV +10.35%E +3.63%K +5.59%G +0.579%	1.45I 68.97%NM 66.28%EV -11.14%E -7.68%K -24.76%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-09-19 20:29
Betsson🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV +8.41%E +3.01%K +4.67%G +0.393%	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -12.37%E -8.65%K -28.76%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-09-19 20:29
TAB🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV +0.670%E +0.258%K +0.419%G +0.003%	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -8.08%E -5.39%K -16.16%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-09-19 21:58
Bet Right🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV +0.670%E +0.258%K +0.419%G +0.003%	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -8.08%E -5.39%K -16.16%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-09-19 21:59
Coolbet🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.73%EV -3.20%E -1.28%K -2.13%G +0.000%	1.58I 63.29%NM 61.27%EV -3.18%E -2.01%K -5.48%G +0.000%	3.3%	2026-09-19 23:29
Bovada🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -3.20%E -1.28%K -2.13%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%EV -3.79%E -2.41%K -6.65%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-09-19 23:29
Caesars🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -3.20%E -1.28%K -2.13%G +0.000%	1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.40%E -2.82%K -7.86%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-09-19 23:30
FanDuel🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -3.20%E -1.28%K -2.13%G +0.000%	1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.40%E -2.82%K -7.86%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-09-19 23:14
LiveScore Bet🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -3.20%E -1.28%K -2.13%G +0.000%	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.63%E -3.65%K -10.42%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-09-19 19:34
Virgin Bet🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -3.20%E -1.28%K -2.13%G +0.000%	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.63%E -3.65%K -10.42%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-09-19 19:34
BetRivers🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -3.20%E -1.28%K -2.13%G +0.000%	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.63%E -3.65%K -10.42%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-09-19 19:35
TABtouch🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -3.20%E -1.28%K -2.13%G +0.000%	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.63%E -3.65%K -10.42%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-09-19 19:34
Unibet🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -3.20%E -1.28%K -2.13%G +0.000%	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.63%E -3.65%K -10.42%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-09-19 19:34
betPARX🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -3.20%E -1.28%K -2.13%G +0.000%	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.63%E -3.65%K -10.42%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-09-19 19:35
ATG (SE)🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -3.20%E -1.28%K -2.13%G +0.000%	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.63%E -3.65%K -10.42%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-09-19 19:34
Bally Bet🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -3.20%E -1.28%K -2.13%G +0.000%	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.63%E -3.65%K -10.42%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-09-19 19:35
Hard Rock Bet🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -3.20%E -1.28%K -2.13%G +0.000%	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.63%E -3.65%K -10.42%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-09-19 19:34
Sky Bet🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.20%E -1.28%K -2.13%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.24%E -4.08%K -11.77%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-19 23:14
Paddy Power🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.20%E -1.28%K -2.13%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.24%E -4.08%K -11.77%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-19 23:14
Fliff🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -3.20%E -1.28%K -2.13%G +0.000%	1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -7.47%E -4.94%K -14.64%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-09-19 23:10
SportsBet🎯	2.49I 40.16%NM 38.21%EV -3.59%E -1.44%K -2.41%G +0.000%	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.79%EV -5.63%E -3.65%K -10.42%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-09-19 23:14
Pinnacle🎯	2.48I 40.32%NM 39.22%EV -3.98%E -1.60%K -2.69%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 60.78%EV -1.95%E -1.22%K -3.25%G +0.000%	2.8%	2026-09-19 23:35
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -5.14%E -2.10%K -3.54%G +0.000%	1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -2.56%E -1.61%K -4.35%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-09-19 23:37
DraftKings🎯	2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -5.14%E -2.10%K -3.54%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -3.79%E -2.41%K -6.65%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-09-19 22:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.14%E -2.10%K -3.54%G +0.000%	1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.01%E -3.24%K -9.12%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-09-19 22:54
888sport🎯	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.14%E -2.10%K -3.54%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.24%E -4.08%K -11.77%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-09-19 22:54
ReBet🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -7.07%E -2.95%K -5.05%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -1.95%E -1.22%K -3.25%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-09-19 22:54
BetAnything🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -7.07%E -2.95%K -5.05%G +0.000%	1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -2.56%E -1.61%K -4.35%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-09-19 23:39
BetMGM🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -7.07%E -2.95%K -5.05%G +0.000%	1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -2.56%E -1.61%K -4.35%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-09-19 20:49
Betr (AU)🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -7.07%E -2.95%K -5.05%G +0.000%	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.01%E -3.24%K -9.12%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-09-19 23:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -9.01%E -3.83%K -6.67%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -1.95%E -1.22%K -3.25%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-09-19 20:49
Grosvenor🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 38.52%EV -12.88%E -5.73%K -10.31%G +0.000%	1.41I 70.92%NM 61.48%EV -13.59%E -9.64%K -33.16%G +0.000%	15.4%	2026-09-19 19:34

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (8)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
BetOpenly◎	2.61I 38.31%NM 38.30%	1.62I 61.73%NM 61.70%	0.0%	2026-09-19 23:28
Kalshi◎	2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61%	1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39%	1.2%	2026-09-19 20:09
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61%	1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39%	1.2%	2026-09-19 23:39
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61%	1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39%	1.2%	2026-09-19 23:39
Matchbook◎	2.56I 39.06%NM 38.46%	1.60I 62.50%NM 61.54%	1.6%	2026-09-19 23:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	2.56I 39.06%NM 38.46%	1.60I 62.50%NM 61.54%	1.6%	2026-09-19 23:24
Novig◎	2.53I 39.53%NM 38.89%	1.61I 62.11%NM 61.11%	1.6%	2026-09-19 23:39
ProphetX◎	2.44I 40.98%NM 39.60%	1.60I 62.50%NM 60.40%	3.5%	2026-09-19 23:39

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
1xBet🎯	2.64I 37.88%NM 34.90%	1.47I 68.03%NM 62.68%	38.00I 2.63%NM 2.42%	8.5%	2026-09-19 16:19