Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mia Grawe v Ashley Thiner

Kickoff: 2026-07-18 22:40 UTC

Final: Mia Grawe 0–1 Ashley Thiner

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

21%

79%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mia Grawe (Local)

Prediction 21.04%4.75fair odd

EV +7.30%

Edge +1.43%

Kelly +1.78%

Growth +0.130%

assuming max odds 5.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

18.27%21.04%21.04%25.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.754.284.005.1026.67%23.35%25.00%19.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ashley Thiner (Visit)

Prediction 78.96%1.27fair odd

EV -0.510%

Edge -0.404%

Kelly -1.96%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

74.85%78.96%78.96%81.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.141.221.251.2687.72%82.19%80.00%79.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mia Grawe (Local): 21.04%; Ashley Thiner (Visit): 78.96%. For Mia Grawe (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.75. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.30%.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
FanDuel🎯	5.10I 19.61%NM 18.27%EV +7.30%E +1.43%K +1.78%G +0.130%	1.14I 87.72%NM 81.73%EV -9.98%E -8.76%K -71.32%G +0.000%	7.3%	2026-07-18 22:34
BetOnline.ag🎯	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -15.84%E -3.96%K -5.28%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -1.30%E -1.04%K -5.20%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-07-18 20:04
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -21.10%E -5.63%K -7.67%G +0.000%	1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -0.510%E -0.404%K -1.96%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-18 22:23

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.