Mia Grawe v Ashley Thiner

2026-07-18 22:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

29%

71%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Mia Grawe (Local)

Prediction 28.53%3.51fair odd

EV -0.160%

Edge -0.046%

Kelly -0.064%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

27.54%28.53%28.53%31.40%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

2.953.112.953.5034%32%34%29%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Ashley Thiner (Visit)

Prediction 71.47%1.40fair odd

EV -3.51%

Edge -2.60%

Kelly -10.03%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

68.60%71.47%71.47%72.46%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.331.341.351.3575%74%74%74%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%EV -0.160%E -0.046%K -0.064%G +0.000%	1.33I 75.19%NM 72.46%EV -4.94%E -3.71%K -14.97%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-07-16 13:30
FanDuel	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -8.72%E -2.72%K -3.96%G +0.000%	1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -4.22%E -3.15%K -12.43%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-07-16 07:10
Bally Bet	2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV -15.85%E -5.37%K -8.13%G +0.000%	1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -3.51%E -2.60%K -10.03%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-07-16 07:10
Unibet	2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV -15.85%E -5.37%K -8.13%G +0.000%	1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -3.51%E -2.60%K -10.03%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-07-16 07:14
Grosvenor	2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV -15.85%E -5.37%K -8.13%G +0.000%	1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -3.51%E -2.60%K -10.03%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-07-16 07:15

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.