Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Merab Dvalishvili v Henry Cejudo

2026-08-23 00:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

1 sportsbook (1 in analysis )

40%

60%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Merab Dvalishvili (Local)

Prediction 40.41%2.47fair odd

EV -5.85%

Edge -2.51%

Kelly -4.40%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

40.41%40.41%40.41%40.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.332.332.332.3342.92%42.92%42.92%42.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Henry Cejudo (Visit)

Prediction 59.59%1.68fair odd

EV -5.85%

Edge -3.70%

Kelly -10.08%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

59.59%59.59%59.59%59.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.581.581.581.5863.29%63.29%63.29%63.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Merab Dvalishvili (Local): 40.41%; Henry Cejudo (Visit): 59.59%. For Merab Dvalishvili (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.47. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.33, with an expected value of -5.85%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.33I 42.92%NM 40.41%EV -5.85%E -2.51%K -4.40%G +0.000%	1.58I 63.29%NM 59.59%EV -5.85%E -3.70%K -10.08%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-08-21 01:04

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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