The School of Odds
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Meng Ding v José Henrique

Kickoff: 2026-05-30 10:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Meng Ding (Local)

Prediction 52.20%1.92fair odd
EV -0.302%
Edge -0.158%
Kelly -0.332%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.26%52.25%52.22%54.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.741.811.801.9157.47%55.18%55.56%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

José Henrique (Visit)

Prediction 47.80%2.09fair odd
EV -2.01%
Edge -0.979%
Kelly -1.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.91%47.75%47.78%49.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.902.002.002.0552.63%49.96%50.00%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Meng Ding (Local): 52.20%; José Henrique (Visit): 47.80%. For Meng Ding (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.92. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.91, with an expected value of -0.302%; they did not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.90%EV -0.302%E -0.158%K -0.332%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 49.10%EV -5.35%E -2.70%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-30 10:00
PlayUp🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.26%EV -1.87%E -0.993%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.74%EV -9.18%E -4.83%K -10.20%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-30 04:30
Bovada🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.30%EV -2.39%E -1.28%K -2.75%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.70%EV -5.83%E -2.96%K -6.01%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-30 10:00
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -2.39%E -1.28%K -2.75%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -6.79%E -3.48%K -7.14%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-30 10:00
FanDuel🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -3.43%E -1.86%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -4.40%E -2.20%K -4.40%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-30 06:10
SportsBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.34%EV -4.48%E -2.45%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 47.66%EV -3.92%E -1.95%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-30 01:19
Caesars🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.48%E -2.45%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.40%E -2.20%K -4.40%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-26 16:20
Betway🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -4.48%E -2.45%K -5.39%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -6.79%E -3.48%K -7.14%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-28 18:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -5.00%E -2.75%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.40%E -2.20%K -4.40%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-27 12:50
Neds🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -5.00%E -2.75%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.40%E -2.20%K -4.40%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-27 12:50
Coolbet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -5.00%E -2.75%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.40%E -2.20%K -4.40%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-25 13:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -6.04%E -3.36%K -7.55%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -2.01%E -0.979%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-30 10:00
BetUS🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -6.04%E -3.36%K -7.55%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -2.01%E -0.979%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-30 10:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -6.04%E -3.36%K -7.55%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -3.44%E -1.70%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-30 10:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.04%E -3.36%K -7.55%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.40%E -2.20%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-28 15:00
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.04%E -3.36%K -7.55%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.40%E -2.20%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-28 14:08
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.04%E -3.36%K -7.55%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.40%E -2.20%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-28 14:09
Bet Right🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.04%E -3.36%K -7.55%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.40%E -2.20%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-30 10:00
BetAnything🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.04%E -3.36%K -7.55%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.79%E -3.48%K -7.14%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-30 02:40
TABtouch🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -6.57%E -3.67%K -8.31%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -3.44%E -1.70%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-28 14:59
Unibet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -6.57%E -3.67%K -8.31%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -3.44%E -1.70%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-28 14:59
LiveScore Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -6.57%E -3.67%K -8.31%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -3.44%E -1.70%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-28 15:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -6.57%E -3.67%K -8.31%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -3.44%E -1.70%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-28 14:59
Grosvenor🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -6.57%E -3.67%K -8.31%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -3.44%E -1.70%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-28 15:00
LeoVegas🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -6.57%E -3.67%K -8.31%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -3.44%E -1.70%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-28 15:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.65%EV -6.57%E -3.67%K -8.31%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 47.35%EV -4.87%E -2.45%K -4.92%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-30 02:39
Betsson🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -9.18%E -5.27%K -12.40%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -2.01%E -0.979%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-29 15:19
NordicBet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -9.18%E -5.27%K -12.40%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -2.01%E -0.979%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-29 15:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (7)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.98I 50.51%NM 50.50%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.50%0.0%2026-05-30 02:39
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.90I 52.63%NM 52.02%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.98%1.2%2026-05-30 10:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.90I 52.63%NM 52.02%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.98%1.2%2026-05-30 10:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.90I 52.63%NM 52.02%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.98%1.2%2026-05-30 10:00
Matchbook◎1.91I 52.36%NM 51.65%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.35%1.4%2026-05-30 10:00
Novig◎1.91I 52.36%NM 51.52%2.03I 49.26%NM 48.48%1.6%2026-05-30 10:00
ProphetX◎1.90I 52.63%NM 50.90%1.97I 50.76%NM 49.10%3.4%2026-05-30 10:00

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 51.18%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.98%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.83%9.1%2026-05-30 07:50