Language:English
Melsik Baghdasaryan v Murtazali Magomedov
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Melsik Baghdasaryan (Local)
Prediction 20.46%4.89fair odd
EV +6.37%
Edge +1.22%
Kelly +1.52%
Growth +0.097%
assuming max odds 5.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.50%20.71%20.50%25.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.454.505.2026.67%22.45%22.22%19.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Murtazali Magomedov (Visit)
Prediction 79.54%1.26fair odd
EV +0.226%
Edge +0.180%
Kelly +0.870%
Growth +0.002%
assuming max odds 1.26
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.85%79.29%79.50%81.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.151.211.201.2686.96%82.41%83.33%79.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Melsik Baghdasaryan (Local): 20.46%; Murtazali Magomedov (Visit): 79.54%. For Melsik Baghdasaryan (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.89. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.37%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.50%EV +6.37%E +1.22%K +1.52%G +0.097% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.50%EV -6.14%E -5.20%K -34.10%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-06-21 00:39 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV +2.28%E +0.455%K +0.569%G +0.013% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -6.14%E -5.20%K -34.10%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-21 00:39 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV +2.28%E +0.455%K +0.569%G +0.013% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -6.14%E -5.20%K -34.10%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-20 21:09 |
| Neds🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV +2.28%E +0.455%K +0.569%G +0.013% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -6.14%E -5.20%K -34.10%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-20 21:09 |
| Caesars🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV +2.28%E +0.455%K +0.569%G +0.013% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -6.14%E -5.20%K -34.10%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-20 23:30 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV +2.28%E +0.455%K +0.569%G +0.013% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.93%E -5.93%K -40.78%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-20 23:49 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.99I 20.04%NM 19.12%EV +2.07%E +0.415%K +0.519%G +0.011% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.88%EV -6.14%E -5.20%K -34.10%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-20 23:29 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.93I 20.28%NM 19.71%EV +0.845%E +0.171%K +0.215%G +0.002% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 80.29%EV -3.75%E -3.10%K -17.86%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-06-20 23:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV -1.81%E -0.378%K -0.478%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.00%EV -4.55%E -3.79%K -22.73%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-20 23:39 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV -1.81%E -0.378%K -0.478%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.00%EV -4.55%E -3.79%K -22.73%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-20 22:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV -1.81%E -0.378%K -0.478%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.00%EV -4.55%E -3.79%K -22.73%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-21 00:39 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -2.84%E -0.597%K -0.757%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -4.55%E -3.79%K -22.73%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-06-21 00:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -2.84%E -0.597%K -0.757%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -5.34%E -4.49%K -28.11%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-20 22:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.65%EV -4.88%E -1.05%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.35%EV -3.75%E -3.10%K -17.86%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-20 21:09 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -5.91%E -1.28%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -4.55%E -3.79%K -22.73%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-20 21:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -7.95%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -3.75%E -3.10%K -17.86%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-20 21:19 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -7.95%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -3.75%E -3.10%K -17.86%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-20 23:39 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -7.95%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.55%E -3.79%K -22.73%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-20 22:19 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -7.95%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.55%E -3.79%K -22.73%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-20 21:19 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -7.95%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.55%E -3.79%K -22.73%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-21 00:09 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.35%EV -7.95%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 79.65%EV -8.52%E -7.41%K -56.82%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-06-21 00:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -16.13%E -3.93%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -0.569%E -0.455%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-06-20 21:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -16.13%E -3.93%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -0.569%E -0.455%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-06-20 21:09 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.00%EV -17.16%E -4.24%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.00%EV -3.75%E -3.10%K -17.86%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-06-21 00:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -18.18%E -4.54%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 76.78%EV -3.75%E -3.10%K -17.86%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-06-20 15:28 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -18.18%E -4.54%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -4.55%E -3.79%K -22.73%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-21 00:39 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -19.20%E -4.86%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV +0.226%E +0.180%K +0.870%G +0.002% | 4.7% | 2026-06-20 21:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -19.20%E -4.86%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV +0.226%E +0.180%K +0.870%G +0.002% | 4.7% | 2026-06-20 21:09 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -19.20%E -4.86%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV +0.226%E +0.180%K +0.870%G +0.002% | 4.7% | 2026-06-20 21:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -19.20%E -4.86%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV +0.226%E +0.180%K +0.870%G +0.002% | 4.7% | 2026-06-20 21:09 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -19.20%E -4.86%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV +0.226%E +0.180%K +0.870%G +0.002% | 4.7% | 2026-06-20 21:09 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -19.20%E -4.86%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV +0.226%E +0.180%K +0.870%G +0.002% | 4.7% | 2026-06-20 21:09 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -19.20%E -4.86%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV +0.226%E +0.180%K +0.870%G +0.002% | 4.7% | 2026-06-20 21:10 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.89%EV -19.20%E -4.86%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.11%EV -1.36%E -1.10%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-20 22:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -23.29%E -6.21%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV +0.226%E +0.180%K +0.870%G +0.002% | 6.0% | 2026-06-20 13:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 5.55I 18.02%NM 18.02% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 81.98% | -0.0% | 2026-06-21 00:38 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.56% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 80.44% | 0.3% | 2026-06-21 00:40 |
| Novig◎ | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 80.13% | 0.6% | 2026-06-21 00:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.57% | 0.9% | 2026-06-21 00:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.57% | 0.9% | 2026-06-21 00:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.00% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 81.00% | 1.2% | 2026-06-21 00:40 |
| Kalshi◎ | 4.76I 21.01%NM 20.53% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 79.47% | 2.3% | 2026-06-21 00:20 |
| ProphetX◎ | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.96% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 79.04% | 3.7% | 2026-06-21 00:40 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.29I 23.31%NM 21.86% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.26% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.88% | 6.6% | 2026-06-20 23:29 |