Language:English
Melquizael Costa v Dan Ige
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Melquizael Costa (Local)
Prediction 68.65%1.46fair odd
EV +1.60%
Edge +1.08%
Kelly +3.33%
Growth +0.053%
assuming max odds 1.48
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.01%68.43%68.52%70.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.411.401.4873.53%71.17%71.43%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Dan Ige (Visit)
Prediction 31.35%3.19fair odd
EV +0.327%
Edge +0.102%
Kelly +0.149%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.98%31.57%31.48%34.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.942.883.2036.36%34.02%34.72%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Melquizael Costa (Local): 68.65%; Dan Ige (Visit): 31.35%. For Melquizael Costa (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.46. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.48, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.60%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV +1.60%E +1.08%K +3.33%G +0.053% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -13.78%E -5.01%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-02-22 02:53 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -1.15%E -0.797%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -10.65%E -3.74%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-02-20 05:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -1.15%E -0.797%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -10.65%E -3.74%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-02-20 05:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.73%EV -2.52%E -1.77%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.27%EV -6.57%E -2.20%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-02-21 23:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -2.52%E -1.77%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -10.65%E -3.74%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-02-21 22:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -2.52%E -1.77%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -10.65%E -3.74%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-02-21 22:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -2.52%E -1.77%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -10.65%E -3.74%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-02-21 22:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -2.52%E -1.77%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -10.65%E -3.74%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-02-21 22:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -2.52%E -1.77%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -10.65%E -3.74%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-02-21 22:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -2.52%E -1.77%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -10.65%E -3.74%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-02-21 22:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -2.52%E -1.77%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -10.65%E -3.74%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-02-21 22:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -2.52%E -1.77%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -10.65%E -3.74%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-02-21 22:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -2.52%E -1.77%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -10.65%E -3.74%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-02-21 22:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -2.52%E -1.77%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -10.65%E -3.74%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-02-21 22:40 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -2.52%E -1.77%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -10.65%E -3.74%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-02-21 22:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -2.52%E -1.77%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -10.65%E -3.74%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-02-21 22:40 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -2.52%E -1.77%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -10.65%E -3.74%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-02-21 22:39 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -3.21%E -2.27%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -7.51%E -2.55%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-02-22 01:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.57%EV -3.89%E -2.78%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.43%EV +0.327%E +0.102%K +0.149%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-02-22 02:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.89%E -2.78%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.94%E -1.98%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-02-22 02:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.89%E -2.78%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.94%E -1.98%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-02-22 02:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.89%E -2.78%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.94%E -1.98%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-02-21 23:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.89%E -2.78%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.94%E -1.98%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-02-21 22:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.96%EV -3.89%E -2.78%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 32.04%EV -6.88%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-22 02:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -3.89%E -2.78%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -7.51%E -2.55%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-22 02:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.89%E -2.78%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -9.08%E -3.13%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-02-21 14:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -3.89%E -2.78%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -9.71%E -3.37%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-02-21 23:29 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -3.89%E -2.78%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -9.71%E -3.37%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-02-21 23:45 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -3.89%E -2.78%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -13.78%E -5.01%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-02-21 19:25 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -3.89%E -2.78%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -13.78%E -5.01%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-02-21 18:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.38%EV -4.58%E -3.29%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.62%EV -1.24%E -0.394%K -0.577%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-02-21 23:20 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.04%EV -4.58%E -3.29%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.96%EV -2.81%E -0.906%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-02-21 23:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 66.83%EV -4.58%E -3.29%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -12.21%E -4.36%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-02-21 23:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.87%EV -5.27%E -3.82%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.13%EV +0.327%E +0.102%K +0.149%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-02-22 02:09 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -5.27%E -3.82%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -1.24%E -0.394%K -0.577%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-02-22 02:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.27%E -3.82%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -4.38%E -1.43%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-21 23:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.27%E -3.82%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -4.38%E -1.43%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-22 01:35 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.27%E -3.82%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -4.38%E -1.43%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-22 02:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -5.95%E -4.34%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.98%EV +0.327%E +0.102%K +0.149%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-02-22 02:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.64%E -4.88%K -18.44%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.81%E -0.906%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-22 02:50 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.45%EV -6.64%E -4.88%K -18.44%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -7.51%E -2.55%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-02-22 02:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 70.29% | 3.36I 29.76%NM 29.71% | 0.2% | 2026-02-22 02:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56% | 0.7% | 2026-02-22 02:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56% | 0.7% | 2026-02-22 02:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56% | 0.7% | 2026-02-22 02:45 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.26% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.74% | 1.7% | 2026-02-22 02:55 |
| Novig◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 69.55% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 30.45% | 2.0% | 2026-02-22 02:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.38% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.62% | 3.7% | 2026-02-22 02:55 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.75% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.97% | 41.00I 2.44%NM 2.28% | 7.1% | 2026-02-21 23:55 |