The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Melissa Croden v Darya Zheleznyakova

Kickoff: 2026-04-18 22:25 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Melissa Croden (Local)

Prediction 55.96%1.79fair odd
EV -0.945%
Edge -0.534%
Kelly -1.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.66%56.08%55.87%57.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.711.701.7759.88%58.56%58.82%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Darya Zheleznyakova (Visit)

Prediction 44.04%2.27fair odd
EV -0.917%
Edge -0.408%
Kelly -0.734%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.60%43.92%44.13%46.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.162.162.2548.78%46.29%46.30%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Melissa Croden (Local): 55.96%; Darya Zheleznyakova (Visit): 44.04%. For Darya Zheleznyakova (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.27. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.25, with an expected value of -0.917%; they did not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
TAB🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -0.945%E -0.534%K -1.23%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -9.72%E -4.74%K -9.26%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-17 22:15
Pinnacle🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.58%EV -2.06%E -1.18%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 44.42%EV -3.56%E -1.63%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-18 22:20
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.18%E -1.84%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.52%E -3.58%K -6.84%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-18 17:00
Betway🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.18%E -1.84%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.52%E -3.58%K -6.84%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-18 06:35
William Hill🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.18%E -1.84%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.52%E -3.58%K -6.84%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-17 06:18
NordicBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.78%EV -3.74%E -2.18%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.22%EV -4.44%E -2.05%K -3.79%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-18 16:45
Betsson🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.78%EV -3.74%E -2.18%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.22%EV -4.44%E -2.05%K -3.79%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-18 16:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -3.74%E -2.18%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -5.32%E -2.47%K -4.63%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-18 00:40
Neds🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -3.74%E -2.18%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -5.32%E -2.47%K -4.63%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-18 00:39
Bovada🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.30%E -2.52%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.12%E -1.42%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-18 22:04
BetMGM🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.30%E -2.52%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.32%E -2.47%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-18 00:39
Bet Right🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.30%E -2.52%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.76%E -2.69%K -5.05%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-18 22:00
DraftKings🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.86%E -2.86%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -3.12%E -1.42%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-18 21:50
BetRivers🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -4.86%E -2.86%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.88%E -2.26%K -4.21%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-18 14:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -4.86%E -2.86%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.88%E -2.26%K -4.21%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-18 14:35
LeoVegas🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -4.86%E -2.86%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.88%E -2.26%K -4.21%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-18 14:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -4.86%E -2.86%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.88%E -2.26%K -4.21%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-18 14:35
TABtouch🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -4.86%E -2.86%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.88%E -2.26%K -4.21%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-18 14:34
Grosvenor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -4.86%E -2.86%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.88%E -2.26%K -4.21%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-18 14:34
Unibet (NL)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -4.86%E -2.86%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.88%E -2.26%K -4.21%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-18 14:34
Unibet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -4.86%E -2.86%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.88%E -2.26%K -4.21%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-18 14:34
ATG (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -4.86%E -2.86%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.88%E -2.26%K -4.21%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-18 14:45
betPARX🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -4.86%E -2.86%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.88%E -2.26%K -4.21%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-18 14:45
Bally Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -4.86%E -2.86%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.88%E -2.26%K -4.21%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-18 14:44
Svenska Spel🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -4.86%E -2.86%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.88%E -2.26%K -4.21%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-18 14:44
BetOnline.ag🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.00%EV -5.42%E -3.21%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.00%EV -1.36%E -0.606%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-18 22:20
BetUS🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.78%EV -5.42%E -3.21%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.22%EV -2.24%E -1.01%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-18 21:59
SportsBet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.22%EV -5.42%E -3.21%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.78%EV -4.44%E -2.05%K -3.79%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-18 22:05
BetAnything🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -5.42%E -3.21%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -5.32%E -2.47%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-18 22:20
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -5.42%E -3.21%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -5.32%E -2.47%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-18 14:45
Caesars🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -6.54%E -3.92%K -9.76%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -0.917%E -0.408%K -0.734%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-18 22:12
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (7)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.79I 55.87%NM 55.80%2.26I 44.25%NM 44.20%0.1%2026-04-18 22:20
Kalshi◎1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%0.9%2026-04-18 22:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.75I 57.14%NM 56.58%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.42%1.0%2026-04-18 22:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.75I 57.14%NM 56.58%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.42%1.0%2026-04-18 22:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.75I 57.14%NM 56.36%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.64%1.4%2026-04-18 22:20
Novig◎1.75I 57.14%NM 56.25%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.75%1.6%2026-04-18 22:20
ProphetX◎1.75I 57.14%NM 55.92%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.08%2.2%2026-04-18 22:20

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.19%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.41%38.00I 2.63%NM 2.41%9.3%2026-04-17 10:59