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Melissa Amaya v Valesca Machado

Kickoff: 2026-09-27 00:16 UTC

Final: Melissa Amaya 0–1 Valesca Machado

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Melissa Amaya (Local)

Prediction 35.00%2.86fair odd
EV -0.262%
Edge -0.092%
Kelly -0.142%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.57%35.04%34.92%36.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.732.752.8540.00%36.63%36.36%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Valesca Machado (Visit)

Prediction 65.00%1.54fair odd
EV -1.84%
Edge -1.22%
Kelly -3.62%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.41%64.96%65.08%66.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.451.441.5175.19%68.90%69.44%66.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Melissa Amaya (Local): 35.00%; Valesca Machado (Visit): 65.00%. For Melissa Amaya (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.86. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.85, with an expected value of -0.262%; they did not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -0.262%E -0.092%K -0.142%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -6.39%E -4.44%K -14.53%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-23 01:15
BetOnline.ag🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -2.01%E -0.718%K -1.12%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -4.44%E -3.02%K -9.45%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-27 00:14
NordicBet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -2.01%E -0.718%K -1.12%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -5.74%E -3.96%K -12.76%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-26 20:50
Unibet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -2.01%E -0.718%K -1.12%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -6.39%E -4.44%K -14.53%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-22 12:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -2.01%E -0.718%K -1.12%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -6.39%E -4.44%K -14.53%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-22 11:59
LiveScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -2.01%E -0.718%K -1.12%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -6.39%E -4.44%K -14.53%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-22 11:59
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -2.01%E -0.718%K -1.12%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -6.39%E -4.44%K -14.53%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-22 11:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -2.01%E -0.718%K -1.12%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -6.39%E -4.44%K -14.53%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-26 12:24
BetRivers🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -2.01%E -0.718%K -1.12%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -7.04%E -4.93%K -16.38%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-22 11:59
TABtouch🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -2.01%E -0.718%K -1.12%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -7.04%E -4.93%K -16.38%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-22 11:59
Bally Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -2.01%E -0.718%K -1.12%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -7.04%E -4.93%K -16.38%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-22 11:59
ATG (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -2.01%E -0.718%K -1.12%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -7.04%E -4.93%K -16.38%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-22 11:59
betPARX🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -2.01%E -0.718%K -1.12%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -7.04%E -4.93%K -16.38%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-22 12:00
PMU (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -2.01%E -0.718%K -1.12%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -7.04%E -4.93%K -16.38%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-25 10:40
Coolbet🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 34.59%EV -2.71%E -0.975%K -1.52%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.41%EV -4.44%E -3.02%K -9.45%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-27 00:14
ReBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -3.76%E -1.37%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -3.79%E -2.56%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-27 00:05
Bet Right🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -3.76%E -1.37%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.74%E -3.96%K -12.76%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-27 00:05
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -3.76%E -1.37%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.39%E -4.44%K -14.53%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-22 08:44
Betsson🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -3.76%E -1.37%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -7.04%E -4.93%K -16.38%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-26 20:50
Pinnacle🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 35.70%EV -4.81%E -1.77%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 64.30%EV -1.84%E -1.22%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-27 00:15
BetAnything🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -5.51%E -2.04%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -2.49%E -1.66%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-27 00:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -5.51%E -2.04%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.44%E -3.02%K -9.45%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-26 17:35
Fliff🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -5.51%E -2.04%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.74%E -3.96%K -12.76%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-26 23:09
BetUS🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 36.06%EV -6.91%E -2.60%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.94%EV -2.49%E -1.66%K -4.99%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-27 00:05
Bovada🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -7.26%E -2.74%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -1.84%E -1.22%K -3.62%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-26 20:14
Betr (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -7.26%E -2.74%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.44%E -3.02%K -9.45%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-26 18:45
DraftKings🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 36.39%EV -7.61%E -2.88%K -4.64%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.61%EV -1.84%E -1.22%K -3.62%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-26 18:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -9.01%E -3.47%K -5.63%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -6.39%E -4.44%K -14.53%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-27 00:15
Winamax (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.93%EV -10.76%E -4.22%K -6.94%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.07%EV -7.04%E -4.93%K -16.38%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-27 00:05
Betclic (FR)🎯2.53I 39.53%NM 36.59%EV -11.46%E -4.53%K -7.49%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 63.41%EV -5.09%E -3.49%K -11.07%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-26 17:59
Grosvenor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.73%EV -12.51%E -5.00%K -8.34%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 65.27%EV -13.54%E -10.18%K -41.04%G +0.000%15.2%2026-09-22 12:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎2.84I 35.21%NM 35.16%1.54I 64.94%NM 64.84%0.1%2026-09-27 00:10
Novig◎2.82I 35.46%NM 35.32%1.54I 64.94%NM 64.68%0.4%2026-09-27 00:15
Matchbook◎2.88I 34.72%NM 34.40%1.51I 66.23%NM 65.60%0.9%2026-09-27 00:14

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯2.71I 36.90%NM 34.52%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.20%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.28%6.9%2026-09-26 19:01