The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Mehemmedeli Osmanli v Ilimbek Akylbek

Kickoff: 2026-09-27 00:48 UTC

Final: Mehemmedeli Osmanli 0–1 Ilimbek Akylbek

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mehemmedeli Osmanli (Local)

Prediction 73.09%1.37fair odd
EV +0.862%
Edge +0.624%
Kelly +2.27%
Growth +0.020%

assuming max odds 1.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.76%72.97%73.21%76.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.211.301.301.3882.64%76.96%76.92%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ilimbek Akylbek (Visit)

Prediction 26.91%3.72fair odd
EV +7.65%
Edge +1.91%
Kelly +2.55%
Growth +0.195%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.81%27.03%26.79%31.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.523.504.0033.90%28.42%28.57%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mehemmedeli Osmanli (Local): 73.09%; Ilimbek Akylbek (Visit): 26.91%. For Ilimbek Akylbek (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.72. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.65%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90%EV -7.18%E -5.65%K -26.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV +7.65%E +1.91%K +2.55%G +0.195%3.7%2026-09-27 00:34
Bet Right🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -8.64%E -6.91%K -34.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV +7.65%E +1.91%K +2.55%G +0.195%5.0%2026-09-27 00:35
Caesars🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -7.18%E -5.65%K -26.58%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV +4.96%E +1.27%K +1.71%G +0.085%4.4%2026-09-27 00:35
Coolbet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -7.18%E -5.65%K -26.58%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV +4.96%E +1.27%K +1.71%G +0.085%4.4%2026-09-27 00:42
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -7.91%E -6.28%K -30.42%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV +4.96%E +1.27%K +1.71%G +0.085%5.0%2026-09-27 00:35
Pinnacle🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 74.01%EV -4.25%E -3.25%K -13.72%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.99%EV +0.381%E +0.102%K +0.139%G +0.001%3.1%2026-09-27 00:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.95%EV -4.99%E -3.83%K -16.62%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 26.05%EV -0.696%E -0.189%K -0.259%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-27 00:44
NordicBet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.74%EV -4.99%E -3.83%K -16.62%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.26%EV -1.77%E -0.486%K -0.669%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-26 20:50
BetUS🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 73.37%EV -4.25%E -3.25%K -13.72%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.63%EV -2.85%E -0.789%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-27 00:45
DraftKings🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -4.25%E -3.25%K -13.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -3.12%E -0.866%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-26 23:40
Bovada🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.90%EV -3.52%E -2.67%K -11.01%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.10%EV -4.46%E -1.26%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-27 00:33
Fliff🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV -5.72%E -4.43%K -19.71%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -4.46%E -1.26%K -1.75%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-27 00:40
Betsson🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.50%EV -6.45%E -5.04%K -23.03%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -4.46%E -1.26%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-26 20:50
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -4.25%E -3.25%K -13.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-27 00:38
Unibet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.99%E -3.83%K -16.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-27 00:40
BetRivers🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.99%E -3.83%K -16.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-27 00:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.99%E -3.83%K -16.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-27 00:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.99%E -3.83%K -16.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-27 00:40
TABtouch🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.99%E -3.83%K -16.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-27 00:40
Bally Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.99%E -3.83%K -16.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-27 00:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.99%E -3.83%K -16.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-27 00:40
betPARX🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.99%E -3.83%K -16.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-27 00:39
PMU (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.99%E -3.83%K -16.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-27 00:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.09%EV -7.18%E -5.65%K -26.58%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.91%EV -7.15%E -2.07%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-26 15:30
BetAnything🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -4.25%E -3.25%K -13.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -8.50%E -2.50%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-27 00:44
888sport🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -4.99%E -3.83%K -16.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -8.50%E -2.50%K -3.54%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-27 00:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -2.79%E -2.10%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -9.85%E -2.94%K -4.19%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-26 21:15
Betr (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -2.79%E -2.10%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -12.54%E -3.86%K -5.57%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-26 19:35
Betway🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -4.99%E -3.83%K -16.62%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -12.54%E -3.86%K -5.57%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-27 00:29
ReBet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.87%EV +0.862%E +0.624%K +2.27%G +0.020%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.13%EV -13.88%E -4.34%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-26 12:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -0.600%E -0.441%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -15.23%E -4.83%K -7.08%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-26 00:20
Grosvenor🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 71.93%EV -11.56%E -9.56%K -55.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.07%EV -16.57%E -5.35%K -7.89%G +0.000%14.9%2026-09-27 00:40
Winamax (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.76%EV -2.06%E -1.54%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.24%EV -20.61%E -6.99%K -10.57%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-26 23:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.33I 75.19%NM 75.00%3.99I 25.06%NM 25.00%0.3%2026-09-27 00:44
Novig◎1.34I 74.63%NM 74.18%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.82%0.6%2026-09-27 00:40
ProphetX◎1.27I 78.74%NM 72.51%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%8.6%2026-09-27 00:35

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.24%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87%7.0%2026-09-26 12:23