The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Mayton Perea v Zevan Hunt

Kickoff: 2026-09-16 00:51 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mayton Perea (Local)

Prediction 47.85%2.09fair odd
EV -3.33%
Edge -1.65%
Kelly -3.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.53%47.79%47.85%52.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.781.951.982.0256.18%51.28%50.63%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Zevan Hunt (Visit)

Prediction 52.15%1.92fair odd
EV +3.77%
Edge +1.89%
Kelly +3.81%
Growth +0.144%

assuming max odds 1.99

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.59%52.21%52.15%52.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.861.841.9954.64%53.62%54.35%50.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mayton Perea (Local): 47.85%; Zevan Hunt (Visit): 52.15%. For Zevan Hunt (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.92. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.99, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.77%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
ReBet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.37%EV -13.38%E -7.39%K -16.52%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 47.63%EV +3.77%E +1.89%K +3.81%G +0.144%5.5%2026-09-15 18:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.41%EV -14.82%E -8.33%K -19.00%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.59%EV +2.21%E +1.13%K +2.30%G +0.051%7.2%2026-09-15 23:20
Pinnacle🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 47.93%EV -3.81%E -1.90%K -3.78%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.07%EV -3.53%E -1.91%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-16 00:40
BetOnline.ag🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 47.93%EV -3.81%E -1.90%K -3.78%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.07%EV -3.53%E -1.91%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-16 00:50
TAB🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -6.68%E -3.43%K -7.04%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -3.53%E -1.91%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-16 00:40
FanDuel🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -3.33%E -1.65%K -3.27%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -4.57%E -2.50%K -5.51%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-16 00:45
BetMGM🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.29%E -2.15%K -4.29%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.57%E -2.50%K -5.51%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-16 00:49
Unibet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.25%E -2.65%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.57%E -2.50%K -5.51%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-16 00:45
Grosvenor🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -5.73%E -2.91%K -5.90%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -4.57%E -2.50%K -5.51%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-16 00:45
TABtouch🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -5.73%E -2.91%K -5.90%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -4.57%E -2.50%K -5.51%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-16 00:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎2.11I 47.39%NM 47.38%1.90I 52.63%NM 52.62%0.0%2026-09-16 00:45
Kalshi◎2.00I 50.00%NM 48.98%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.02%2.1%2026-09-16 00:40
Novig◎1.90I 52.63%NM 51.03%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.97%3.1%2026-09-16 00:50
ProphetX◎2.01I 49.75%NM 47.66%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.34%4.4%2026-09-16 00:45