The School of Odds
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Maxwell Djantou Nana v Karl Williams

Kickoff: 2026-05-02 23:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Maxwell Djantou Nana (Local)

Prediction 34.07%2.94fair odd
EV -1.20%
Edge -0.415%
Kelly -0.634%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.18%34.07%34.12%34.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.762.812.802.9036.23%35.56%35.71%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Karl Williams (Visit)

Prediction 65.93%1.52fair odd
EV -2.42%
Edge -1.64%
Kelly -5.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.09%65.93%65.88%66.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.451.441.4869.44%68.97%69.44%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Maxwell Djantou Nana (Local): 34.07%; Karl Williams (Visit): 65.93%. For Maxwell Djantou Nana (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.94. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.90, with an expected value of -1.20%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -1.20%E -0.415%K -0.634%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -5.06%E -3.51%K -11.49%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-02 22:30
BetMGM🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.61%E -1.65%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.40%E -3.03%K -9.77%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-02 20:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.61%E -1.65%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.06%E -3.51%K -11.49%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-02 20:15
Neds🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.61%E -1.65%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.06%E -3.51%K -11.49%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-02 20:15
FanDuel🎯2.76I 36.23%NM 34.91%EV -5.97%E -2.16%K -3.39%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 65.09%EV -2.42%E -1.64%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-02 23:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.