The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Max Holloway v Charles Oliveira

Kickoff: 2026-03-08 04:43 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Max Holloway (Local)

Prediction 63.80%1.57fair odd
EV -2.39%
Edge -1.56%
Kelly -4.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.18%63.64%63.71%65.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.491.481.5368.97%66.95%67.57%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Charles Oliveira (Visit)

Prediction 36.20%2.76fair odd
EV +1.37%
Edge +0.488%
Kelly +0.759%
Growth +0.010%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.12%36.36%36.29%38.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.382.622.652.8042.02%38.22%37.74%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Max Holloway (Local): 63.80%; Charles Oliveira (Visit): 36.20%. For Charles Oliveira (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.76. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.37%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -7.49%E -5.17%K -16.65%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV +1.37%E +0.488%K +0.759%G +0.010%4.7%2026-03-08 00:59
Coolbet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -5.58%E -3.77%K -11.62%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -0.443%E -0.161%K -0.253%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-07 11:36
BetOnline.ag🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -4.30%E -2.87%K -8.61%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -2.25%E -0.835%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-08 04:34
Caesars🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -3.67%E -2.43%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -4.06%E -1.53%K -2.46%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-08 04:30
TABtouch🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.58%E -3.77%K -11.62%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.06%E -1.53%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-08 02:49
LiveScore Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.58%E -3.77%K -11.62%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.06%E -1.53%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-08 02:49
LeoVegas🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.58%E -3.77%K -11.62%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.06%E -1.53%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-08 02:49
Virgin Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.58%E -3.77%K -11.62%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.06%E -1.53%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-08 02:49
Unibet (NL)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.58%E -3.77%K -11.62%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.06%E -1.53%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-08 02:49
BetRivers🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.58%E -3.77%K -11.62%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.06%E -1.53%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-08 02:49
Grosvenor🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.58%E -3.77%K -11.62%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.06%E -1.53%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-08 02:49
Unibet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.58%E -3.77%K -11.62%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.06%E -1.53%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-08 02:49
Unibet (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.58%E -3.77%K -11.62%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.06%E -1.53%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-08 04:34
Neds🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.58%E -3.77%K -11.62%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.06%E -1.53%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-08 00:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.58%E -3.77%K -11.62%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.06%E -1.53%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-08 00:59
PlayUp🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.58%E -3.77%K -11.62%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.06%E -1.53%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-08 02:44
Betr (AU)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -6.86%E -4.70%K -14.90%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -4.06%E -1.53%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-08 04:34
FanDuel🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.61%EV -3.67%E -2.43%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.39%EV -4.43%E -1.68%K -2.70%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-07 19:54
Bovada🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 63.13%EV -2.39%E -1.56%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.87%EV -5.15%E -1.97%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-08 04:28
SportsBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -4.30%E -2.87%K -8.61%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -5.15%E -1.97%K -3.18%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-08 04:34
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -4.30%E -2.87%K -8.61%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -5.15%E -1.97%K -3.18%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-01 20:28
Marathon Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -3.03%E -1.99%K -5.82%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -5.87%E -2.26%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-07 18:55
Bet Right🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -3.67%E -2.43%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -5.87%E -2.26%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-08 04:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.30%E -2.87%K -8.61%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.87%E -2.26%K -3.67%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-08 02:54
William Hill🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.30%E -2.87%K -8.61%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.87%E -2.26%K -3.67%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-07 07:00
DraftKings🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.58%E -3.77%K -11.62%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -5.87%E -2.26%K -3.67%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-08 04:34
BetAnything🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.68%EV -2.39%E -1.56%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.32%EV -6.96%E -2.71%K -4.43%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-08 04:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.39%E -1.56%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -9.49%E -3.80%K -6.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-08 04:22
Betsson🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.38%EV -3.67%E -2.43%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.62%EV -13.11%E -5.46%K -9.37%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-08 04:14
NordicBet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.38%EV -3.67%E -2.43%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.62%EV -13.11%E -5.46%K -9.37%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-08 04:15
Betclic (FR)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.18%EV -3.67%E -2.43%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.82%EV -13.84%E -5.81%K -10.03%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-07 21:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.55I 64.52%NM 64.20%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.80%0.5%2026-03-08 04:34
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.55I 64.52%NM 64.20%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.80%0.5%2026-03-08 04:34
Matchbook◎1.55I 64.52%NM 64.20%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.80%0.5%2026-03-08 04:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.54I 64.94%NM 64.35%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.65%0.9%2026-03-08 04:34

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.20%2.57I 38.91%NM 36.91%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.90%5.4%2026-03-07 18:55