Language:English
Max Griffin v Victor Valenzuela
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Max Griffin (Local)
Prediction 43.58%2.29fair odd
EV +0.229%
Edge +0.100%
Kelly +0.176%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.48%43.48%43.67%45.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.182.162.3047.62%45.82%46.30%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Victor Valenzuela (Visit)
Prediction 56.42%1.77fair odd
EV -1.83%
Edge -1.05%
Kelly -2.47%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.74
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.83%56.52%56.33%58.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.631.691.701.7461.35%59.18%58.82%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Max Griffin (Local): 43.58%; Victor Valenzuela (Visit): 56.42%. For Max Griffin (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.29. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.229%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV +0.229%E +0.100%K +0.176%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -8.03%E -4.93%K -12.75%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-23 17:04 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV +0.229%E +0.100%K +0.176%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -8.03%E -4.93%K -12.75%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-23 17:04 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -1.95%E -0.867%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -5.77%E -3.46%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-21 12:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -1.95%E -0.867%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.90%E -4.18%K -10.62%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-22 13:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -1.95%E -0.867%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.90%E -4.18%K -10.62%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-22 13:24 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -1.95%E -0.867%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.90%E -4.18%K -10.62%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-22 20:19 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -1.95%E -0.867%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.90%E -4.18%K -10.62%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-22 20:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.11%EV -2.82%E -1.27%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.89%EV -4.65%E -2.75%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-21 13:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -3.26%E -1.47%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV -4.08%E -2.40%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-23 23:39 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -3.26%E -1.47%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV -4.08%E -2.40%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-23 11:48 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -4.13%E -1.88%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.52%E -2.06%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-23 12:13 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.13%E -1.88%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.77%E -3.46%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-21 15:29 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.13%E -1.88%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.77%E -3.46%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-21 18:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.13%E -1.88%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.77%E -3.46%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 12:19 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -5.00%E -2.29%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -3.52%E -2.06%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-23 12:14 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -5.00%E -2.29%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -3.52%E -2.06%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-23 23:26 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.67%EV -5.00%E -2.29%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.33%EV -4.65%E -2.75%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 21:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.78%EV -5.44%E -2.51%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.22%EV -4.65%E -2.75%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 14:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -5.87%E -2.72%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -4.08%E -2.40%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 20:39 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -5.87%E -2.72%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -4.08%E -2.40%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 20:39 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -5.87%E -2.72%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -4.08%E -2.40%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 20:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -5.87%E -2.72%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -4.08%E -2.40%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 20:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -5.87%E -2.72%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -4.08%E -2.40%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 20:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -5.87%E -2.72%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -4.08%E -2.40%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 20:39 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -5.87%E -2.72%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -4.08%E -2.40%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 20:39 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -5.87%E -2.72%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -4.08%E -2.40%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 20:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -5.87%E -2.72%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -4.08%E -2.40%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 20:39 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -5.87%E -2.72%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -4.08%E -2.40%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 20:39 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -5.87%E -2.72%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -4.08%E -2.40%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 20:39 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -5.87%E -2.72%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -4.08%E -2.40%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 20:39 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.31%E -2.93%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.08%E -2.40%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 14:49 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.31%E -2.93%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.08%E -2.40%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 20:50 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -6.31%E -2.93%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -4.65%E -2.75%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-23 20:39 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -6.31%E -2.93%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -4.65%E -2.75%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-23 12:19 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -6.31%E -2.93%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -5.21%E -3.10%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-21 16:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -6.31%E -2.93%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -5.21%E -3.10%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-23 20:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -6.74%E -3.15%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -1.83%E -1.05%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-23 04:44 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -8.49%E -4.04%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -2.39%E -1.38%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 14:34 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -8.49%E -4.04%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -2.39%E -1.38%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 14:34 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -8.49%E -4.04%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -3.52%E -2.06%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-23 12:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 2.32I 43.10%NM 43.14% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 56.86% | -0.1% | 2026-04-23 23:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.50% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.50% | 1.7% | 2026-04-23 22:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.50% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.50% | 1.7% | 2026-04-23 22:49 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.50% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.50% | 1.7% | 2026-04-23 22:50 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.08% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.92% | 2.2% | 2026-04-24 03:30 |
| Novig◎ | 2.16I 46.30%NM 45.04% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.96% | 2.8% | 2026-04-24 03:25 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.21I 45.25%NM 43.62% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.38% | 3.7% | 2026-04-23 23:29 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 23:35 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.19I 45.66%NM 42.18% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.98% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.85% | 8.3% | 2026-04-22 13:00 |