Language:English
Mauricio Ruffy v Michael Chandler
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Mauricio Ruffy (Local)
Prediction 80.28%1.25fair odd
EV -1.26%
Edge -1.02%
Kelly -5.48%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.23
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.78%80.53%80.22%84.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.111.191.191.2390.09%84.28%84.03%81.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Michael Chandler (Visit)
Prediction 19.72%5.07fair odd
EV +18.34%
Edge +3.06%
Kelly +3.67%
Growth +0.673%
assuming max odds 6.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.61%19.47%19.78%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.864.906.0023.81%20.58%20.41%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mauricio Ruffy (Local): 80.28%; Michael Chandler (Visit): 19.72%. For Michael Chandler (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.07. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +18.34%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betsson🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -10.89%E -9.81%K -99.03%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV +18.34%E +3.06%K +3.67%G +0.673% | 6.8% | 2026-06-13 18:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -6.88%E -5.93%K -43.00%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV +8.48%E +1.54%K +1.88%G +0.160% | 4.4% | 2026-06-14 22:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.04%EV -6.88%E -5.93%K -43.00%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.96%EV +4.54%E +0.856%K +1.06%G +0.048% | 5.1% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -6.08%E -5.19%K -35.75%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV +3.55%E +0.676%K +0.836%G +0.030% | 4.5% | 2026-06-14 11:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.95%EV -3.67%E -3.06%K -18.34%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.05%EV +0.592%E +0.116%K +0.144%G +0.001% | 2.9% | 2026-06-15 01:49 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.86%EV -9.29%E -8.22%K -71.45%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.14%EV +0.592%E +0.116%K +0.144%G +0.001% | 8.1% | 2026-06-15 01:39 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -7.68%E -6.68%K -51.22%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -1.38%E -0.276%K -0.345%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-15 02:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.46%EV -4.47%E -3.76%K -23.53%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.54%EV -3.35%E -0.684%K -0.860%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-06-15 00:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.46%EV -4.47%E -3.76%K -23.53%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.54%EV -3.35%E -0.684%K -0.860%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-06-15 00:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.46%EV -4.47%E -3.76%K -23.53%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.54%EV -3.35%E -0.684%K -0.860%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-06-15 00:51 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.46%EV -4.47%E -3.76%K -23.53%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.54%EV -3.35%E -0.684%K -0.860%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-06-15 00:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.46%EV -4.47%E -3.76%K -23.53%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.54%EV -3.35%E -0.684%K -0.860%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-06-15 00:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.46%EV -4.47%E -3.76%K -23.53%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.54%EV -3.35%E -0.684%K -0.860%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-06-15 00:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.46%EV -4.47%E -3.76%K -23.53%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.54%EV -3.35%E -0.684%K -0.860%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-06-15 00:51 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.46%EV -4.47%E -3.76%K -23.53%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.54%EV -3.35%E -0.684%K -0.860%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-06-15 00:51 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.46%EV -4.47%E -3.76%K -23.53%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.54%EV -3.35%E -0.684%K -0.860%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-06-15 00:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.46%EV -4.47%E -3.76%K -23.53%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.54%EV -3.35%E -0.684%K -0.860%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-06-15 00:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.46%EV -4.47%E -3.76%K -23.53%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.54%EV -3.35%E -0.684%K -0.860%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-06-15 00:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.46%EV -4.47%E -3.76%K -23.53%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.54%EV -3.35%E -0.684%K -0.860%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-06-15 00:51 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.46%EV -4.47%E -3.76%K -23.53%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.54%EV -3.35%E -0.684%K -0.860%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-06-15 00:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.46%EV -4.47%E -3.76%K -23.53%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.54%EV -3.35%E -0.684%K -0.860%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-06-15 00:51 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.46%EV -4.47%E -3.76%K -23.53%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.54%EV -3.35%E -0.684%K -0.860%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-06-15 00:50 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.86%EV -6.88%E -5.93%K -43.00%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -3.35%E -0.684%K -0.860%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-06-15 01:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.17%EV -3.67%E -3.06%K -18.34%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.83%EV -4.34%E -0.895%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-06-15 02:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.43%EV -5.27%E -4.47%K -29.30%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.57%EV -4.34%E -0.895%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-15 01:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.00%EV -3.67%E -3.06%K -18.34%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV -5.32%E -1.11%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-15 01:41 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.00%EV -3.67%E -3.06%K -18.34%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV -5.32%E -1.11%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-15 01:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -5.27%E -4.47%K -29.30%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -5.32%E -1.11%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-14 18:19 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.70%EV -2.87%E -2.37%K -13.65%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.30%EV -6.31%E -1.33%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-06-15 02:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -3.67%E -3.06%K -18.34%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -6.31%E -1.33%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-06-15 02:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -4.47%E -3.76%K -23.53%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -6.31%E -1.33%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-15 01:40 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -4.47%E -3.76%K -23.53%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -6.31%E -1.33%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-15 01:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -5.27%E -4.47%K -29.30%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -6.31%E -1.33%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-15 01:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.93%EV -5.27%E -4.47%K -29.30%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV -7.30%E -1.55%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-14 18:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.93%EV -5.27%E -4.47%K -29.30%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV -7.30%E -1.55%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-15 01:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 79.19%EV -1.26%E -1.02%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 4.68I 21.37%NM 20.81%EV -7.69%E -1.64%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-06-15 02:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.17%EV -2.87%E -2.37%K -13.65%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.83%EV -9.27%E -2.02%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-06-15 02:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -3.67%E -3.06%K -18.34%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -9.27%E -2.02%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-15 01:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.67%E -3.06%K -18.34%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -11.24%E -2.50%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-14 12:29 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.67%E -3.06%K -18.34%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -11.24%E -2.50%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-15 02:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.67%E -3.06%K -18.34%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -11.24%E -2.50%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-15 02:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.67%E -3.06%K -18.34%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -11.24%E -2.50%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-14 12:30 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -3.67%E -3.06%K -18.34%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -17.16%E -4.09%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-06-15 01:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.67% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.33% | 0.4% | 2026-06-15 02:00 |
| Novig◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 78.33% | 4.59I 21.79%NM 21.67% | 0.5% | 2026-06-15 02:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.24I 80.65%NM 80.13% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87% | 0.6% | 2026-06-15 02:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.24I 80.65%NM 79.80% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.20% | 1.1% | 2026-06-15 02:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.24I 80.65%NM 79.80% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.20% | 1.1% | 2026-06-15 02:00 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.26% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.74% | 1.1% | 2026-06-15 02:00 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.62% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.38% | 3.9% | 2026-06-15 02:00 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.79% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.33% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.88% | 6.7% | 2026-06-15 01:39 |